『The Fireweed Capital Podcast』のカバーアート

The Fireweed Capital Podcast

The Fireweed Capital Podcast

著者： Dr. Adam Link CFP®
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2026年5月12日まで。4か月目以降は月額1,500円で自動更新します。

概要

The Fireweed Capital Podcast is a wealth planning podcast for tech professionals, hosted by Dr. Adam Link, CFP®. Each episode breaks down financial strategies, from equity compensation and tax optimization to retirement planning, with data-driven insights and a contrarian perspective that challenges conventional wisdom.

© 2026 The Fireweed Capital Podcast 個人ファイナンス 経済学
エピソード
  • Should You Max Out Your 401(k) or Pay Down Your Mortgage in 2026?

    Should You Max Out Your 401(k) or Pay Down Your Mortgage in 2026?
    2026/04/28
    Episode Overview

    In 2026's high interest rate environment, the traditional advice to "always max your 401(k) first" deserves a closer look. With mortgage rates above 7% and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act potentially expiring, the math between retirement contributions and mortgage paydown is much closer than most financial advisors want to admit.

    Key Topics Discussed The Real Math: 401(k) vs Mortgage Paydown
    • How to properly compare pre-tax 401(k) benefits with after-tax mortgage interest savings
    • The impact of AMT on tech professionals' effective tax rates
    • Why the freed-up cash flow from early mortgage payoff matters more than most analyses suggest
    • Sequence of returns risk and early retirement considerations
    Hidden Variables Most Calculators Miss
    • State tax implications and geographic arbitrage opportunities
    • RSU vesting schedules and "tax timing chaos"
    • Concentration risk from equity compensation
    • The mega backdoor Roth strategy (when available)
    The Psychology of Debt vs. Investment
    • Why humans treat mortgage payments differently than investment contributions
    • The behavioral benefits of "front-loaded gratification"
    • Volatility fatigue for tech professionals
    • The endowment effect and homeownership
    Decision Framework

    Rather than a one-size-fits-all answer, Dr. Link provides a framework for making this decision:

    1. Secure your 401(k) match first (it's free money)
    2. Calculate your effective tax rate including AMT implications
    3. Compare that rate to your mortgage rate
    4. Consider your career stage and retirement timeline
    5. Factor in your psychology around debt and risk
    Key Takeaways
    • In 2026's rate environment, mortgage paydown can be competitive with 401(k) contributions
    • Tech professionals face unique complications (AMT, RSUs, concentration risk)
    • The decision isn't permanent—you can adjust as rates and tax policy change
    • Psychology and personal circumstances matter as much as pure mathematics
    • Career flexibility and peace of mind have real financial value
    Action Item

    Review your last tax return to calculate your actual marginal tax rate, including state taxes and any AMT implications. Compare this to your current mortgage rate to see how close the math really is for your situation.

    Resources
    • Fireweed Capital - Wealth planning for tech professionals
    • Schedule a consultation if you'd like personalized advice
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    37 分
  • Why This Bull Market Is Different (And What Tech Professionals Need to Know)

    Why This Bull Market Is Different (And What Tech Professionals Need to Know)
    2026/04/21
    In this episode, Dr. Adam Link exposes the hidden structural changes in markets that most analysts are missing, and explains why traditional risk management isn't adequate for the current bull market environment. ## Key Topics Covered **Market Structure Changes** - Liquidity concentration effects and why the top 10 S&P 500 holdings now represent 35% of the index - How systematic institutional flows, not retail speculation, are driving unprecedented market concentration - The role of sector-specific ETFs in amplifying concentration risk across seemingly diversified themes **Options Market Dynamics** - How zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options are creating volatile hedging requirements for market makers - Gamma exposure and self-reinforcing feedback loops between options activity and stock prices - Why options positioning now drives price momentum independently of fundamental analysis **Systematic Strategy Risks** - The institutionalization of momentum strategies through risk parity funds and volatility targeting - How trillions of dollars in algorithmic strategies create crowded trades at unprecedented scale - Why correlation breakdowns happen exactly when diversification is needed most **The Liquidity Mirage** - How "fair weather liquidity" disappears during stress events, despite appearing abundant in normal conditions - Central bank policy changes and the unwinding of volatility suppression strategies - Sequence risk for tech professionals: when RSU vesting coincides with systematic deleveraging **Practical Defense Strategies** - Liquidity diversification across different correlation patterns and stress behaviors - Volatility-aware rebalancing with circuit breakers to avoid forced selling during liquidity crunches - Cash as a strategic asset for opportunistic positioning during systematic strategy dislocations - Building anti-fragile portfolio elements that benefit from market stress ## Resources Mentioned - Episode transcript and show notes: [fireweedcapital.com](https://fireweedcapital.com) - For personalized guidance: [fireweedcapital.com/meet](https://fireweedcapital.com/meet) This episode is particularly relevant for tech professionals with concentrated equity compensation who need to understand how modern market structure affects portfolio risk management.
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    38 分
  • Why Tech Professionals Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy (And How It's Destroying Your Wealth)

    Why Tech Professionals Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy (And How It's Destroying Your Wealth)
    2026/04/14
    Tech professionals are uniquely vulnerable to the sunk cost fallacy in investing. The same persistence and analytical skills that make engineers successful in their careers often lead them to hold onto losing investments far longer than they should. This episode explores why your engineering mindset can work against you in the markets and provides a systematic framework for making rational exit decisions. ## Key Topics Covered **Why Engineers Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy** - How persistence in problem-solving translates poorly to investing - The danger of overconfidence in technical analysis - Analysis paralysis and its investment costs - Mental accounting with equity compensation **The Hidden Costs of Sunk Cost Thinking** - Opportunity cost calculations with real numbers - "Attention debt" and its impact on career advancement - Portfolio distortion and concentration risk - Tax inefficiency from not harvesting losses - Psychological scarring and long-term investment behavior **Building Your Investment Algorithm** - Position sizing rules (5% max for any single position) - Stop-loss rules with specific, measurable criteria - Quarterly rebalancing triggers - The "opportunity cost audit" framework - Tax-loss harvesting integration - Complexity budgeting for your portfolio ## Action Items 1. Implement position sizing rules for new investments (never more than 5% in any single position) 2. Apply the opportunity cost audit quarterly: "If I had this cash today, would I buy this investment?" 3. Set calendar reminders for quarterly portfolio reviews 4. Build systematic rules that remove emotion from investment decisions ## Key Statistics - Overconfident investors typically underperform by 2-3% annually - For tech professionals, sunk cost thinking can cost $300,000-$500,000 over a 20-year career - Tax-loss harvesting can add 0.5% to 1% annually in after-tax returns ## Resources - Studies on overconfidence bias in investing - Portfolio construction frameworks - Tax-loss harvesting strategies - Behavioral finance research Remember: The best investors aren't the ones who are right most often — they're the ones who keep their losses small and let their winners run.
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    36 分
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