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  • How the Fed Reads China Import Prices in July 2026

    How the Fed Reads China Import Prices in July 2026
    2026/07/21
    Import prices from China just hit their highest level since 2008, even as domestic inflation cools. Lucas and Luna unpack how the Fed interprets this divergence — why a rise in imported goods costs doesn't necessarily signal broader inflation, and how it complicates the rate path. They ground the discussion in the latest CPI and core PCE data, the surprise wholesale price decline, and the Fed's own Beige Book anecdotes. Plus, a brief note on how listener support keeps this show ad-free. #FederalReserve #ImportPrices #China #Inflation #CPI #CorePCE #WholesalePrices #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FedRatePath #Economics #TreasuryYields #BreakevenInflation #SupplyChain #TradePolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the Fed Interprets Mixed Inflation Signals in Mid-2026

    How the Fed Interprets Mixed Inflation Signals in Mid-2026
    2026/07/21
    Lucas and Luna break down the Fed's current puzzle: headline CPI is falling while core PCE is edging up. They examine why the Fed watches the PCE more closely than CPI, how import prices from China are muddying the inflation picture, and what the latest data means for the interest rate path. With the Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent and the ten-year yield at 4.60 percent, the hosts explain the diverging signals and the Fed's likely response through the rest of 2026. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CPI #PCE #InterestRates #FedFundsRate #ImportPrices #China #TreasuryYields #BreakevenRate #CoreInflation #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Podcast #CentralBank #FOMC Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • The Unwinding of the Fed Balance Sheet and Reserve Scarcity

    The Unwinding of the Fed Balance Sheet and Reserve Scarcity
    2026/07/20
    Episode 125 of the Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines a quiet but consequential shift in monetary policy: the Fed's ongoing balance sheet reduction, or quantitative tightening, and its potential to create reserve scarcity in the banking system. With the effective federal funds rate at 3.63% and interest on reserve balances at 3.65%, the gap is razor-thin—signaling that reserves are getting less abundant. Hosts Lucas and Luna explore recent data from the Fed's weekly H.4.1 release, the dynamics of the overnight repo market, and the lessons of September 2019, when reserves suddenly became scarce and repo rates spiked to 10%. They discuss how the Fed is now signaling a slower pace of QT, possibly ending later this year, and what that means for markets and the economy. The episode ties in the current yield curve inversion (2-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.54%) and the stock market's recent wobbles as signals of tightening financial conditions. No ads, just clear analysis. #FederalReserve #QuantitativeTightening #BalanceSheetReduction #ReserveScarcity #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #RepoMarket #FedFundsRate #SeventeenPercent #TreasurySecurities #QT #Liquidity #FinancialConditions #YieldCurve #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the Fed Reads the World Cup Economic Boost

    How the Fed Reads the World Cup Economic Boost
    2026/07/19
    The World Cup gave bars and restaurants a much-needed boost, but the Fed's Beige Book suggests consumers are flashing warning signs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack what the sports tourism surge really tells us about the broader economy—and why the Fed can't ignore the noise. They look at the surprise gain in import prices from China, the unexpected decline in wholesale prices, and how these data points complicate the rate path. With the Fed funds rate flat at 3.63%, the question is whether one-off events like the World Cup mask underlying weakness. Listeners get a concrete look at how the Fed separates signal from seasonal and event-driven distortion, and why the next few months of data will be critical. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #WorldCupEconomics #BeigeBook #ConsumerSpending #ImportPrices #WholesalePrices #Inflation #RatePath #SportsTourism #EconomicData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #FedPolicy #CentralBank #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How Import Prices from China Are Distorting the Feds Inflation Data

    How Import Prices from China Are Distorting the Feds Inflation Data
    2026/07/19
    In Episode 123 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point that has the Fed's attention: import prices from China hit their highest level since 2008, even as overall inflation is cooling. They explore how this one channel is complicating the central bank's read on the economy, why it's not triggering a rate hike, and what it means for the inflation outlook through the rest of 2026. With wholesale prices deflating and core PCE still sticky, the hosts break down the conflicting signals the Fed is juggling. A deep dive into the geopolitics and economics of trade-driven inflation, without the hot takes. #FederalReserve #ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #CorePCE #WholesaleDeflation #FOMC #RatePath #TradeWar #Tariffs #SupplyChain #BreakevenRate #FedWatch #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • What Falling Core CPI Means for the Fed Rate Path

    What Falling Core CPI Means for the Fed Rate Path
    2026/07/18
    The June CPI report showed core inflation slipping slightly, but the Fed is watching a more stubborn measure: the supercore services index, which excludes housing. Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed is laser-focused on the cost of haircuts, auto repairs, and hotel rooms—and how that data is shaping the rate outlook for the second half of 2026. They discuss the latest import price surprise from China, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up, and what the FOMC's July meeting might signal. A closer look at the inflation metrics that actually move policy. #FederalReserve #CPI #CoreCPI #SupercoreInflation #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FOMC #InflationData #ServicesInflation #BreakevenRate #ImportPrices #China #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch #July2026 #RatePath Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How Import Prices From China Are Distorting the Feds Inflation Picture

    How Import Prices From China Are Distorting the Feds Inflation Picture
    2026/07/18
    China's import prices just hit their highest level since 2008, even as wholesale prices in the U.S. are falling. Lucas and Luna unpack why the Fed can't ignore this contradiction: when cheap Chinese goods get more expensive, the disinflationary force that helped cool core goods inflation for two years starts to reverse. They walk through the June PPI data, the 10-year breakeven rate ticking up to 2.24 percent, and what it means for the rate path through year-end. If you've wondered why the FOMC seems stuck at 3.63 percent despite good CPI numbers, this is the missing puzzle piece. #ImportPrices #China #Fed #Inflation #PPI #CPI #BreakevenRate #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #CoreGoods #Disinflation #WholesalePrices #Trade #Tariffs #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Why the Fed Is Watching Import Prices From China

    Why the Fed Is Watching Import Prices From China
    2026/07/17
    Episode 120 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a surprising data point from July 2026: import prices posted a surprise gain, with costs of goods from China hitting their highest since 2008. They explore why the Fed, which has been focused on domestic services inflation and wholesale deflation, now has to factor in a resurgent imported goods channel. How does this complicate the rate path when the Fed funds rate sits at 3.63 percent and core PCE is creeping up? And what does China's slowest quarterly growth since 2022 mean for global pricing pressure? Lucas walks through the mechanics of passthrough, the difference between tariff-driven and demand-driven price increases, and why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.22 percent might be giving false comfort. Luna pushes back on whether the Fed can actually respond to supply-side shocks. A tight, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to understand what the Fed is really watching this summer. #FedPodcast #ImportPrices #ChinaTrade #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #SupplyChain #Tariffs #CorePCE #BreakevenRate #FedFundsRate #WholesaleDeflation #ServicesInflation #GlobalTrade #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分