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  • What the Fed Reads Into Long-Term Unemployment

    What the Fed Reads Into Long-Term Unemployment
    2026/06/05
    Episode 33 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo drills into the surge in long-term unemployment — workers jobless for 27 weeks or more. With the May jobs report due tomorrow and the rate of people out of work for half a year rising even as headline payrolls look solid, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed watches this metric as a signal of labor market scarring. They connect it to the Fed's current hold on rates, the sticky inflation picture, and what the Bernanke-era research on hysteresis means for policy today. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read between the lines of central bank communication. #FederalReserve #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #Hysteresis #Bernanke #Fed #Economics #FOMC #Employment #RateHikes #ADP #CPI #CoreInflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • The Fed's Hidden Labor Market Indicator Nobody Talks About

    The Fed's Hidden Labor Market Indicator Nobody Talks About
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dive into the Federal Reserve's quiet focus on the duration of unemployment, not just the headline jobless rate. With long-term unemployment surging to levels not seen since the 2010s, they unpack why this metric matters more than the monthly payrolls number. Using data from the latest JOLTS report and the upcoming May jobs report, they explain how the Fed uses the share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more to gauge labor market slack and future wage pressures. The episode explores why this indicator is often overlooked by markets, how it influences the Fed's thinking on rate cuts, and what it reveals about structural changes in the economy. A must-listen for anyone trying to make sense of the Fed's data-dependent approach. #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Economy #JobsReport #JOLTS #WageInflation #InterestRates #EmploymentDuration #HiddenMetrics #CentralBanking #EconomicData #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • The Fed's Hidden Metric on Long-Term Unemployment

    The Fed's Hidden Metric on Long-Term Unemployment
    2026/06/04
    Episode 31 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo dives into a less-noticed but critical data point: the surge in long-term unemployment. With job openings at 7.6 million and private payrolls adding 122,000 in May, you might think the labor market is tight. But Lucas and Luna examine the rising share of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more—a metric the Fed watches closely for signs of structural damage. They connect this to the Fed's rate stance, the sticky CPI reading of 332.4, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropping to 2.38%. How does a growing pool of long-term unemployed influence the Fed's willingness to cut rates? And what does it mean for wage growth and economic scarring? This episode offers a focused look at one number that tells a deeper story about the recovery's uneven shape. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Inflation #CPI #FOMC #WageGrowth #EconomicScarring #RateCuts #Employment #ADP #BreakevenInflation #StructuralUnemployment #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • What the Fed Makes of the Job Openings Surge

    What the Fed Makes of the Job Openings Surge
    2026/06/04
    Episode 30 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April, the highest in nearly two years, and what that really means for the Fed's next move. They parse the ADP private payrolls number for May (122,000, stronger than expected), and connect it to the Fed's preferred Core PCE inflation reading still running above the 2% target. The hosts discuss why the labor market isn't signaling a rate cut anytime soon, and how the central bank's framework has shifted from focusing on slack to focusing on wage-driven services inflation. A specific, data-grounded conversation for anyone trying to read the tea leaves on rate policy. #FederalReserve #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #ADP #CorePCE #Inflation #InterestRates #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #WageInflation #AprilJOLTS #ServiceSector #FedPolicy #EconomicData #Business #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the Fed Navigates Sticky Jobs Data and Flat Rates

    How the Fed Navigates Sticky Jobs Data and Flat Rates
    2026/06/03
    Lucas and Luna dig into today's ADP payrolls report—122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, stronger than expected—and ask what the Federal Reserve makes of a labor market that keeps churning even as the fed funds rate sits at 3.62 percent. With job openings surging to 7.6 million in April and core PCE inflation still above target, they explore why the Fed seems content to hold rates steady rather than react to every data release. The conversation touches on the ten-year breakeven inflation rate—which actually ticked down to 2.39 percent—and what that divergence between hot jobs and cool inflation expectations means for the next FOMC meeting. Lucas also walks through the history of the Fed's 'wait and see' posture in similar cycles, including the mid-1990s, and why this moment may be more about data consistency than any single number. #FederalReserve #ADP #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #InterestRates #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #Economy #Economics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Podcast #Finance #CentralBanking #DataDriven Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the Fed Is Learning from the Iran War Energy Spike

    What the Fed Is Learning from the Iran War Energy Spike
    2026/06/02
    Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 energy inflation spike tied to the Iran conflict. With the average US household spending $450 more on gas and energy, and core CPI running at 3.3%, the hosts explore why the Fed can't just raise rates to fix supply shocks. They discuss how the Fed's preferred PCE gauge captures this differently than CPI, why Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called energy inflation 'more persistent than expected,' and what this means for the rate path ahead. A grounded look at how geopolitical events force the Fed to distinguish between cyclical and structural inflation — and why the answer isn't always more tightening. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #IranWar #EnergyInflation #CoreCPI #PCE #GasPrices #SupplyShock #Economy #Business #Finance #Economics #FOMC #Inflation #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why the Fed Cares About Your Gas Bill More Than You Think

    Why the Fed Cares About Your Gas Bill More Than You Think
    2026/06/01
    Inflation is still running above the Fed's target — core PCE hit 3.3% annualized in April. But the component that has the Fed's attention isn't shelter or services. It's energy. This episode unpacks why gasoline and heating oil are uniquely dangerous for monetary policy: how they feed into inflation expectations, why the Fed can't ignore them even though they're volatile, and what the Iran war's $450-per-household energy surcharge means for the timing of rate cuts. Lucas and Luna walk through the specific data from the April PCE report and recent Fed speeches — including Goolsbee's acknowledgment that energy inflation has been 'more persistent than expected.' They also explore the 'double scar' effect on consumer psychology and why Kashkari is prioritizing inflation over the labor market. No hot takes — just the mechanics of central banking in a geopolitically charged energy environment. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EnergyInflation #PCE #CoreInflation #IranWar #GasPrices #InflationExpectations #Fed #FOMC #Goolsbee #Kashkari #CentralBanking #Economics #ConsumerSentiment #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why the Fed Is Watching the Labor Market Tightness Number

    Why the Fed Is Watching the Labor Market Tightness Number
    2026/06/01
    Lucas and Luna break down why the Federal Reserve is zeroing in on a specific labor market metric: the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%, the hosts explain how this single number — which has dropped from 2:1 to 1.2:1 — could determine whether the Fed cuts rates in 2026. They discuss recent comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, and why the labor market remains surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical shocks. Lucas argues that the openings-to-unemployed ratio is the key signal for rate policy, while Luna challenges whether the metric captures the full picture for workers. The episode ties together data from the JOLTS survey, April CPI, and the ten-year yield at 4.45% to make a case for why this one ratio matters more than headlines about consumer sentiment. #FederalReserve #FOMC #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #Unemployment #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CorePCE #Inflation #Kashkari #JOLTS #EnergyPrices #IranWar #TenYearYield #RateCut #EconomicData #Economics #FexingoBusiness Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分