Australia’s housing market is creaking under pressure — record-low affordability, rising lower-end prices, and policies that keep boosting demand instead of easing it. In this episode, Cotality’s Head of Research Eliza Owen helps us zoom out and make sense of the contradictions shaping today’s market.

We unpack why “years to save a 20% deposit” is the wrong metric, why income — not deposits — is the real barrier, and how the 5% deposit scheme pushes prices up by funnelling demand under strict caps. Eliza also breaks down the mismatch between the homes we build and how Australians actually live, alongside the collapse in turnover rates that concentrates buying power among wealthier households.

If you want a clear, data-led look at what’s really driving the crisis — and why prices keep rising even as affordability falls apart — this conversation cuts through the noise.

00:00 — Introduction and Overview of Australia's Housing Market

02:18 — Government Incentives and Their Impact

04:17 — Challenges in Housing Affordability

10:16 — Policy Measures and Their Effects

12:18 — Affordability and Market Trends

17:55 — Turnover Rates and Market Stability

22:20 — The Case for Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax

25:28 — Mismatch in Housing Supply and Demand

28:19 — Challenges in the Rental Market

31:38 — Eliza's Departure and Reflections

34:42 — Global Perspectives on Housing Markets

38:51 — Affordability Metrics and Policy

42:33 — Underquoting and Auction Dynamics

43:36 — Conclusion and Listener Engagement

Eliza Owen is the Head of Research at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), where she leads national market intelligence and economic analysis across Australia’s property sector. Appointed in 2020, she brings more than a decade of expertise in affordability metrics, credit conditions, lending environments, and the economic pressures shaping housing performance.

Eliza has guided industry leaders through some of the most pivotal moments in recent history — from the volatility of COVID-era markets to the rapid rate-hike cycle and today’s affordability crisis. Her work helps governments, banks, and real estate professionals understand the shifting forces impacting buyers, sellers, and renters, using rigorous data to illuminate what’s really happening beneath the headlines.

A sought-after keynote speaker and trusted media commentator, she has presented to thousands across real estate, construction, banking, and finance, translating complex economics into clear, practical insights. Passionate about demystifying housing data, Eliza is recognised for storytelling that cuts through complexity and empowers Australians to make smarter, evidence-based decisions in an increasingly strained housing landscape.

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• The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast -

2026 is shaping up as a year of subtle indicators and big risks, and Louis Christopher breaks down the data points seasoned investors should be paying attention to right now.

In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris just days after releasing the 2026 edition to unpack the findings that matter most: population growth moderating sharply, supply finally catching up in pockets, and why rental pressure may ease before prices do. And, critically, he reveals the assumptions his modelling rests on — and the risks that could topple them.

Louis walks us through the four core scenarios underpinning his 2026 outlook, including the one that unexpectedly took the lead in 2025, and the one he now believes may need a late addendum as sticky inflation raises the odds of a surprise rate hike. From unemployment edging toward 5%, to small business stress, to shifts in interstate migration, Louis explains how these macro levers shape the micro realities buyers and investors experience on the ground.

We also zoom into the markets that defied expectations in 2025 — including Darwin’s explosive rebound and the Gold Coast’s continued growth despite being fundamentally overvalued. Louis breaks down why listings data is flashing one message, why developers are building for the wrong demographic, and where supply bottlenecks could turn into oversupply shocks by 2027. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain the nation’s top performers, but Louis outlines exactly what conditions would need to change for any of them to lose steam.

This conversation is packed with uncomfortable truths, grounded forecasts, and the kind of nuance you only get from someone who has studied the data for over two decades. Whether you’re trying to time a purchase, expand a portfolio, or simply understand where the market is heading next, Louis’ insights offer the clarity — and the caution — needed to navigate 2026 with your eyes open.

00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook

01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach

02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions

05:38 – Key Assumptions for 2026

07:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 2026

10:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis

15:14 – Darwin Market Insights

18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings

21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings

23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities

25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends

26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes

28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends

32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience

34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices

37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market Predictions

Louis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.

With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.

Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence,...

In this Q&A episode, Veronica and Chris unpack the real property questions investors are facing right now. From ATO debt rules to cashflow pressure and portfolio structure, this episode gets straight to the point and cuts through the myths.

They break down a $5.3M portfolio spread across Logan, Townsville, Shepparton, regional WA and Melbourne’s fringe, revealing why “affordable” properties often deliver slow long-term growth — and when selling is actually the smarter move.

The conversation also dives into rising insurance costs in flood-prone markets, including Gold Coast premiums hitting up to $20K a year. Veronica explains how underinsurance, flood overlays and lender behaviour could reshape future buyer demand.

Finally, Chris explores whether AI-driven job losses could weaken the property market, or simply concentrate demand into fewer suburbs. If you want clearer strategy and better decision-making, this Q&A delivers the insights investors need now.

00:00 — Introduction and Listener Questions Overview

00:25 — James' Question on Refinancing Loans

05:43 — Michael's Property Portfolio Deconstruction

18:14 — Nick's Question on Flood Insurance and Property Desirability

20:36 — Insurance Challenges and Borrowing Concerns

22:42 — Gold Coast Property Insights

26:42 — AI's Impact on White Collar Jobs and Property Market

27:59 — Future of Property Market Amid AI Revolution

37:14 — Investment Strategies in a Changing Market

41:50 — AI in Property Decision Making

• Episode 374: How Will Climate Risk Impact Your Property’s Future Value?

Mark Errichiello is a licensed buyers and vendors advocate and the Co-Founder & Director of Master Advocates, a Melbourne-based property advisory firm known for its strategic, data-driven approach to acquisitions, valuations, and auction representation. With decades of hands-on experience, Mark has attended every Block auction since the early seasons and understands the dynamics of high-pressure televised auctions better than most.

Mark has represented bidders in both metropolitan and regional markets — including acting as an anonymous strategic bidder during the Phillip Island Block season — giving him unique insight into how buyer psychology, auction order, and market fundamentals shape outcomes. His commentary cuts through hype and focuses on realistic pricing, fair value, and the long-term risks buyers often overlook.

Respected for his measured, forensic approach, Mark brings clarity to situations where emotion, spectacle, and production expectations collide with real market behaviour. His expertise helps buyers navigate fast-moving environments and make confident, well-informed decisions.

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• If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:
• The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast -...