This morning, a small kitchen-and-bath supplier nobody's ever heard of went up 200% before lunch. By the afternoon, it was already sliding back down. Meanwhile, one of the most boring yet beloved businesses in America just got cheaper than it's been in five years. In today’s market, it's easy to miss which one is the actual opportunity.

This month, Greg starts with FGI Industries ($FGI), a $9 million company that briefly saw a day's worth of trading change hands worth $1.5 billion. He walks through how a thin float and a wave of momentum trading turned an unremarkable quarter into a day trader's dream. He also gets into why chasing the inevitable crash back down, especially by shorting it, can be far riskier than it looks. It's a story with zero connection to cash flow.

From there, he makes the case that all assets and investments are built on cash flow, which sets the stage for a deep dive on the McDonald’s ($MCD) story. It's not a hamburger story. It's a royalty and rent story, with 95% of restaurants franchised, over 60% of revenue recurring, and returns on invested capital that have sat in the high teens since 2009. Greg breaks down the 10-year dividend model, why the stock is about as cheap as it's been in half a decade, and what would actually have to go wrong for the thesis to break.

Two companies, two completely different definitions of opportunity. One's a lottery ticket. The other's a cash flow machine that's been quietly compounding for decades.

TOPICS COVERED

[00:41] Introduction: flash money vs. slow and steady

[03:31] FGI Industries ($FGI): how a small-cap stock spiked 200% in a morning

[09:36] The hidden danger of shorting a low-float speculative stock

[13:03] Dividend yields are falling — is the strategy still viable?

[17:16] Why every asset ultimately depends on cash flow

[20:32] Introducing McDonald's ($MCD): not the story you think it is

[21:53] Franchise economics: royalties, rent, and McDonald's scale advantage

[30:39] Return on invested capital and 20 years of consistent dividend growth

[32:21] The 10-year dividend model: mapping out a potential double

[34:45] What could go wrong: GLP-1 drugs, shifting habits, rising input costs

[41:04] Valuation today and where we would start buying

[43:20] Final takeaway: discipline beats the illusion of easy money

________

📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

A century-old tech company just took a gut punch from Wall Street. A century-old oil giant hasn't had an exciting headline in years. Ten years from now, which one do you actually want to own?

In this episode, Greg takes the long view on two very different dividend payers. The first is IBM ($IBM), a stock that ran from the low $200s to a high near $325 over the past year as its quantum computing story caught fire. It then dropped back to around $205 after disappointing contract delays spooked the market. Greg walks through why the selloff isn't the end of the story: IBM's debt has improved, revenue is growing again after years of stagnation, and at roughly 17 times earnings, he argues investors are no longer paying for the quantum computing option.

The second is Chevron ($CVX), a stock with none of IBM's drama and, in Greg's view, almost all of the certainty. Diversified across exploration, refining, and chemicals, with a dividend track record that held even when oil prices went negative in 2020, Chevron represents a different kind of long-term bet. It's not a call option on a breakthrough, but a compounding cash flow machine that is also a quiet beneficiary of AI.

Two very different companies, one shared idea: real wealth is built by holding through the boring years, not by chasing the exciting ones.

TOPICS COVERED

[00:41] Introduction: Two Long-Term Stories, Two Different Bets
[03:04] IBM ($IBM): From Story Stock to Speed Bump
[04:47] Inside IBM's Business: Software, Consulting, and Red Hat
[08:41] The Quantum Computing Bet Behind the Stock
[13:44] IBM's 10-Year Dividend Growth Math
[16:24] Chevron ($CVX): The Cash Flow Machine
[18:17] Chevron's Dividend Track Record and Financial Strength
[20:40] Diversification: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals
[21:15] Chevron as a Natural Gas and AI Play
[23:49] Why Chevron Over Exxon ($XOM)?
[25:45] Two Long Views, One Lesson in Patience
[28:02] Final Takeaway: It's All About the Waiting

________

📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market

📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com

Send us Fan Mail

________

Resources:

📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models

________

If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show.

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________

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

The news says the market is down, up, sideways... but which market? The Dow, the S&P 500, SCHD, gold, real estate—on any given day, they're all doing something different. If you don't know which market is actually yours, sooner or later, one of the others will seduce you into a move you'll regret.

In Episode 60, Greg takes on a question that sounds almost too simple: What is the market? Using six real-world examples—from dividend ETFs to Denver office towers to SpaceX ($SPCX)—he shows how dramatically different markets can move in completely opposite directions at the same time and why investors who haven't clearly defined their market tend to react to the wrong signals at the worst possible moments.

The clearest example is SCHD, Schwab's dividend ETF. From 2022 through 2025, it lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in three of four years—enough to break most investors. Then 2026 hits: SCHD is up nearly 20%, and the S&P is under 9%. The investors who stayed were right all along. They just had to get comfortable with 3 years of underperformance to realize the benefit. Greg explains why that gap—between being right and feeling right—is where a lot of investors lose focus.

The same pattern runs through two 29-story office towers in downtown Denver that sold for $5 million total, while the equivalent square footage five miles away in Cherry Creek would fetch over $63 million. Or Microsoft ($MSFT), which swung from $550 to $355 to $460 to $390 in a single year while its dividend grew at 10% annually without interruption. Price and value are not the same thing—and once you know which market you're actually in, the noise from every other market gets a lot easier to ignore.

All kinds of “markets” can work. The investors who build wealth aren't necessarily picking the best one; they're staying committed to the one that works for them.

Topics Covered:

[00:11] Introduction & 5th Year Anniversary
[03:06] What Is "The Market"? Defining the Question
[06:04] SCHD vs. S&P 500: Four Years, Two Very Different Outcomes
[10:00] The Three Tiers of Dividend Investing
[12:53] Denver Real Estate: Same City, Two Different Markets
[19:28] Gold: A Market With Its Own Rules
[21:35] SpaceX: When Valuation Defies Convention
[24:19] Microsoft ($MSFT): Price vs. Value in Real Time
[27:30] Takeaway: Pick Your Battles, Win the War
[31:34] Close: Get on the Line and Stay on the Line (GDP Eventually Goes Up)

________

📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market

📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com

Send us Fan Mail

________

Resources:

📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models

________

If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show.

Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

________

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.