In this episode of the Distance Dr podcast, Nick and I sit down and properly dissect a recent large cohort paper examining training load changes and injury risk in endurance athletes.
We walk through the study design, what the researchers actually measured, and why the results challenge some long-held assumptions about weekly mileage progression and the so-called “10% rule.” In particular, we dig into the role of single-session spikes, especially long runs, and why these may matter more than gradual changes in weekly volume alone.
We also spend time on what this paper can tell us, what it can’t, and the important limitations that need to be understood before anyone rushes to change how they train. From there, we translate the findings into practical, real-world coaching decisions, including how to think about long run progression, tapering, and load management without oversimplifying complex physiology.
Study link: https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/59/17/1203