Why Confirmation Bias Can Cost You Thousands — And How to Spot It

In this episode, Alison Dunn reveals how even the most experienced leaders fall prey to confirmation bias, often without realizing it. Through her personal story and practical advice, she shows how to identify and overcome this costly thinking trap before it causes irreversible damage.

Key Topics:

• Alison shares her $250,000 mistake with a franchise purchase, illustrating how confirmation bias influences decision-making.
• The subtle signs of confirmation bias in everyday leadership, such as defending decisions and dismissing conflicting evidence.
• How to ask effective questions, like "What assumptions am I making?" and "What if those assumptions are wrong?" to challenge your thinking.
• The importance of treating opposition or questions as gifts rather than threats to uncover hidden biases.
• Strategies to prevent confirmation bias, including writing down assumptions and seeking genuine input before making decisions.
• The role of self-awareness and curiosity in catching this trap early, especially in team discussions and strategic planning.
• A teaser for the book "Think First" that offers five methods to detect and counteract thinking traps before they turn costly.

Timestamps:

00:00 - The high cost of decision-making mistakes leaders often mistake for good judgment

00:29 - Alison's personal story of buying a franchise with flawed thinking

00:59 - How confirmation bias creates case-building rather than genuine decision-making

01:29 - Recognizing confirmation bias: defense mechanisms and filtering evidence

01:58 - Everyday signs: sharing decisions after they’re made, seeking buy-in rather than input

02:13 - The importance of asking "What am I assuming?" before closing a decision

02:41 - Using questions to challenge assumptions and invite curiosity

03:07 - The difference between awareness and action: catching bias in real-time

03:37 - Practical questions to expose assumptions and invite challenge

04:07 - How to treat opposition and questions as gifts to avoid confirmation bias

04:37 - Final advice: reflect on whether you're still deciding or just building a case; unlearning bias

05:05 - Promotion for "Think First" and upcoming episode on solving recurring problems

Think First