The weekly Argentina Brief breaks down the biggest economic and financial news from Argentina — in under 3 minutes.

Full thread available on X: https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2055694184841933302

This week:

*April inflation falls to 2.6% — the lowest April print since 2017 (excluding 2020). Core held at 2.3%, food at 1.5%. Regulated prices (+4.7%) did the heavy lifting.

*Country risk dipped below 500 basis points for the first time since January. Goldman Sachs's Alberto Ramos told Bloomberg Línea that Argentina could issue bonds now — but Caputo "isn't wrong" to wait for tighter spreads.

*YPF filed the largest single RIGI project ever — a US$25 billion oil development in Vaca Muerta targeting 240,000 barrels per day by 2032, all for export. Four other projects were also approved, including a Chinese lithium expansion.

*Grupo Financiero Galicia swung back to profit with ARS$66.5 billion in net income. The drag: Naranja X, whose NPLs surged 155% YoY.

*MercadoLibre posted its fourth straight earnings miss. Citi downgraded the stock; five banks cut price targets. But Michael Burry is buying — his "load the truck" price is around US$1,300.

*Globant jumped 12% after CEO Martín Migoya delivered a bullish AI message: "This industry is being reconfigured in front of our eyes. Globant was built for this moment."

*The Central Bank disclosed it paid US$17.7 million in interest on the US$2.5 billion US Treasury swap — and revealed the China swap has been cut by two-thirds.

Hosted by Francisco Aldaya

A Fitch upgrade, a corruption scandal entering its third month, and quarterly results from Argentina's two largest companies by market cap — with very different outcomes.

FULL THREAD AVAILABLE ON X! https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2053545311293919531

This week: Economy Minister Luis Caputo shifts his tone on tapping international debt markets. Fitch raises Argentina from CCC+ to B-minus, while Moody's hints a July upgrade could be possible. The Adorni scandal intensifies as Patricia Bullrich publicly breaks ranks. MercadoLibre delivers 49% revenue growth but plunges 12.7% — and Michael Burry says he's buying. YPF beats estimates but slips on fuel price freeze questions. Plus: REM survey shows inflation steady but GDP expectations trimmed.

🎧 For a deeper dive, check out Episode 2 of the monthly Argentina Brief podcast with Dan Politi and Allie Lazar — available on all podcast platforms.

Stories covered:

1. Caputo shifts tone on international debt issuance
2. Fitch raises Argentina to B-minus
3. Moody's signals possible July upgrade
4. Adorni scandal — Bullrich calls for urgent asset declaration
5. Milei approval falls below 36%
6. REM survey: 2.6% inflation, peso forecasts strengthen, GDP trimmed to 2.8%
7. MercadoLibre Q1: 49% revenue growth, stock plunges 12.7%
8. Michael Burry takes position in MELI
9. YPF Q1: beats estimates, fuel price freeze in focus

Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei is hitting new headwinds. The macro story still points to stabilization, but the data is getting messier: activity contracted in February, wages are still lagging inflation, and declining tax revenues are raising fresh questions about the sustainability of the budget surplus. Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi look at whether the economy has stalled and why so many Argentines feel their lives have gotten worse.

They also dig into a more fragile political landscape, with slipping approval ratings, internal tensions, and corruption scandals testing Milei’s promise to be different from Argentina’s traditional political class.

Allie Lazar joins to explain why fall may be Buenos Aires’ most wonderful (and riskies) season, puzzle over Argentina’s surprisingly poor showing in a global steakhouse list, and question what these rankings really tell us in the first place.

• (00:00) Intro

• (00:43) Fran's Brief

• (02:37) Dan's Brief

• (03:59) Dan's Number

• (05:14) Fran's Number

• (07:05) Economics Deep Dive

• (13:48) Politics Deep Dive

• (24:05) The Intersect

• (37:52) La Sobremesa

Recorded on May 3, 2026

Full thread on X: [https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2050714621095387519]

-Government confidence index hits lowest level since September, dropping 12.1% in April to 2.02 points — equivalent to Milei mustering roughly 40% of the vote if elections were held today.

-Bondholders increasingly focused on post-Milei risk, with October 2028 bonds trading 360 basis points above 2027 paper as the market prices in potential policy reversal after his term.

-Milei presents 20 charts defending his record at Fundación Libertad dinner, highlighting fiscal turnaround from 15% deficit to 0.2% surplus and inflation down from 289% to 33%.

-Vista Energy posts strong Q1 results with $865 million revenue and $694 million net income, up 58% year-over-year.

-YPF approves 10-for-1 stock split to boost retail participation, while Genneia-Edison submits top bid for Transener privatization.

The tension between improving economic fundamentals and declining public confidence — can Milei sustain the reform agenda through 2027? Let us know what you think in the comments!

Argentina's Congress passed a sweeping reform to the glacier protection law, handing provincial governors the power to greenlight mining on previously protected formations — potentially unlocking up to $28 billion in copper investment from BHP and Glencore. The central bank logged its second-largest single-day dollar purchase since Milei took office, extending a 64-session buying streak. And Morgan Stanley says Argentina could post a current account surplus this year — three years ahead of IMF projections.

Also this week: manufacturing fell nearly 9% year-on-year as the two-speed economy deepens, capital controls were partially loosened, March inflation ticked back up to 3% on fuel costs, Arca Continental signaled a sustained consumer recovery, and Marcelo Mindlin completed a landmark cement deal spanning Argentina and Brazil.

A packed week for Argentina — geopolitics, economics, and legal drama all at once.We start with an unusual story: leaked Russian intelligence documents allege a coordinated campaign to destabilize the Milei government throughout 2024, spending over $600,000 on real and fabricated content. The revelations come as Argentina's geopolitical alignment gets even sharper — with the expulsion of Iran's chargé d'affaires this week.On the economic front, poverty fell to 28.2%, the lowest since 2018 and down nearly 25 points from the post-devaluation peak. But analysts are warning the decline may have hit a floor, with wages now trailing inflation.Foreign investors keep leaning in. Non-resident bond holdings hit their highest since June 2023, and Chile's LarrainVial resumed Argentina coverage for the first time since Macri — comparing the stabilization to Chile in the 1990s, not Mexico's 1994 crisis.Meanwhile, Vaca Muerta keeps booming: the RIGI pipeline now has over $23 billion in projects under review, and Vista Energy raised $500 million in 12-year bonds. The peso — defying EM peers — appreciated 2.3% since the Iran war began, fueled by record grain harvests.But it wasn't all smooth sailing. A federal court suspended 81 articles of the labor reform after the CGT's constitutional challenge. And Cabinet Chief Adorni saw his legal troubles deepen.Finally, Argentina tested the market's appetite for post-Milei risk with a new 2028 bond — which sold at 8.9%, a 380bp premium over bonds maturing before his term ends.—Host: Francisco Aldaya

Two years into Javier Milei’s presidency, Argentina is at a turning point. The economy is stabilising but unevenly, and the mood around his government is beginning to shift. In the debut episode of The Argentina Brief, Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi unpack a K-shaped recovery: which sectors are booming, who’s being left behind, and what that divide means for the country’s future. We also take you inside Argentina Week in New York, where the government pitched its economic model to global investors, and examine the growing tensions around Milei, from sliding poll numbers to the controversies testing his authority.

Finally, Allie Lazar joins us to unpack why all the new Buenos Aires restaurants look the same, and shares her top three spots in the city.

New episodes monthly.