Over the past year, markets have navigated an unusually complex environment. Investors have been forced to weigh slowing growth against persistent inflation concerns, shifting monetary policy expectations, elevated geopolitical risk, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Entering 2026, the dominant question is how the next phase of global growth may unfold.

SOURCES:
Absolute Strategy Research, “Economic Outlook: 2026”, written by Dominic White, Adam Wolfe & Ben Blanchard, November 25, 2025
Absolute Strategy Research, “Asset Allocation Outlook: 2026”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, December 4, 2025
Alpine Macro, “Climbing AI’s Wall of Worry”, written by Henry Wu, December 8, 2025
Alpine Macro, “2026 Commodity Outlook”, written by Kelly Xu, December 9, 2025
Alpine Macro, “Macro Outlook 2026”, written by Chen Zhao, December 15, 2025
Alpine Macro, “Tracking the Mag7 Mania Roadmap”, written by David Abramson, December 19, 2025
BCA Research, “Outlook 2026: Revelation”, written by BCA Editors, December 1, 2025
BCA Research, “Annual Outlook 2026: Don’t Fight the Trump”, written by Marco Papic, December 1, 2025
BCA Research, “An AI Investment Framework For Long-Term Investors”, written by Jonathan LaBerge, December 3, 2025
BCA Research, “2026 Key Views: US Equity”, written by Irene Tunkel, December 10, 2025
BCA Research, “December Here, There And Everywhere”, written by Marco Papic, December 10, 2025
Oxford Economics, “US Economic Forecast: Consumer Spending Will Support the Economy in 2026”, written by Ryan Sweet, December 9, 2025

While there have been plenty of twists and turns, the first half of 2025 unfolded pretty much as anticipated.

Looking ahead, our base case is for renewed expansion into 2026.

SOURCES:
Alpine Macro, “Eyes on US Labor But Profits Ultimately Rule”, written by Bassam Nawfal, September 16, 2025
Alpine Macro, “It’s Not Just Gold That Shines”, written by Kelly Xu, July 10, 2025
Absolute Strategy Return, “AI CapEx Boom Points to Tech Bubble End Game”, written by Ian Harnett, September 25, 2025
Absolute Strategy Return, “Rate Cuts & Earnings Favour Risk Assets”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, September 24, 2025
Oxford Economics, “Bifurcated – State of Consumer Depends on Whom You ask”, written by Michael Pearce, September 24, 2025
Oxford Economics, “Recession Monitor – Gradual Pace of Rate Cuts Warranted”, written by Matthew Martin, September 25, 2025

Here are six actual questions from six actual clients that I believe best capture today's economic mood.