『Sweet Surplus: Brazil's Real Deal Shakes Up Sugar Markets』のカバーアート

Sweet Surplus: Brazil's Real Deal Shakes Up Sugar Markets

Sweet Surplus: Brazil's Real Deal Shakes Up Sugar Markets

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey friends, welcome back to Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I'm your host Vanessa, and today we're diving into the latest on sugar prices, global production trends, and what it all means for you.

Let's kick off with the current trading price. As of the latest close on Wednesday, March New York world sugar number 11 futures are sitting at about 14.84 cents per pound, down a bit from recent highs—specifically off 0.20% or so today amid some market pressure. London ICE white sugar is also easing lower. Barchart reports these dips are tied to a weakening Brazilian real, which hit a four-and-a-half-month low against the dollar, sparking more exports from Brazil, the top producer.

On the bearish side, production is ramping up worldwide. Brazil's Conab just bumped their 2025-26 sugar output forecast to 45 million metric tons, and Unica data shows cane crushed for sugar rising to over 51% this season. India's Sugar Mill Association reported a 28% jump in output to 7.8 million metric tons through mid-December, with forecasts now at 31 to 35 million tons thanks to better monsoons. Thailand expects a 5% crop increase to 10.5 million tons. The USDA's fresh report predicts record global production of 189 million metric tons for 2025-26, outpacing consumption and leading to shrinking ending stocks but still a surplus vibe. Czarnikow even sees a hefty 7.5 to 8.7 million ton global surplus, flipping last year's deficit.

But hey, not all doom—India's export quota is capped at 1.5 million tons, which could offer some price support. And looking ahead, Czarnikow notes potential consumption dips from health trends and GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, especially in wealthier countries, which might balance things out.

For you traders or food businesses, keep an eye on Brazil's real and Indian monsoons—these could swing prices fast. If you're baking or buying bulk, stock up now before any rebound.

That's your sugar update, folks—prices soft but with production booming. Thanks for tuning in, you're the best. Subscribe, share with a friend, and catch you next time on Daily Sugar Price Tracker!

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