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  • Australian Delegation Witnesses China Speed, China Scale - Tim Buckley - Ep71

    Australian Delegation Witnesses China Speed, China Scale - Tim Buckley - Ep71
    2026/07/01
    Tim Buckley joined the Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade) and Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific (RECAP) delegation to China. Before joining the delegation, Tim travelled across China by train — a very fast trip with a friend from Hong Kong, via Chongqing. Nothing beats travelling 12 hours at 300kph across the length of this amazing country to orient himself and see some of the landscape. Chongqing is the largest city in China (and the world), with a population of some 34 million people. Simply incredible and beautiful. Walking the streets of Beijing, Tim played spot-the-ICE-vehicle — green EV number plates abound! Tim joined the delegation for the Fourth China International Supply Chain Expo (CISCE) in Beijing. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke at the opening ceremony, addressing the importance for China of global supply chain stability and security for mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, even as other nations create geopolitical challenges. Australia was featured as the country guest of honour. Great to have John Grimes (Renewable Energy Council Asia-Pacific, RECAP) and Dominic Trindade (Australia Consul-General, Australian Trade and Investment Commission, Austrade) co-hosting, with Don Farrell, Trade Minister. Tim and the delegation were there to see "China Speed, China Scale" first hand — and even sat in an autonomous flying EV taxi! Brilliant to meet with State Grid Corporation of China's CEPRI (China Electric Power Research Institute) RERC team to discuss energy system transformation trends in China, and how they match and differ from Australia. Brilliant to hear China plans to expand variable renewable energy (VRE) capacity from 1.84TW as of December 2025 to ~3.0TW installed capacity by 2030. CEPRI estimates China's solar potential at 45.6TW, while onshore wind is estimated at a more modest 3.4TW (plus 0.5TW of lower-speed wind), offshore wind at 0.4TW in deep sea (out to 50km offshore), and another 0.36TW of near-shore wind (at 100 metre height). By 2030, China's 3.0TW VRE capacity will be just 6% of this 50TW maximum. CEPRI acknowledges this theoretical maximum is being progressively raised — the higher the tower, the faster the average wind speed, and generation expands somewhat exponentially. By end of 2025, China had 46 HVDC grid transmission lines operational — that's 46 of the world's roughly 50 largest lines. Total world leadership, clearly evident, and very impressive. The Austrade RECAP delegation visited XCMG Group's factory in Xuzhou, China. XCMG is the number one OEM in mining equipment in China (with a 2025 share of 33% in domestic mining excavators) and third globally. XCMG's 2025 revenue reached Rmb90bn, up 897% since 2019, with 2025 net profit of Rmb4.9bn. XCMG's R&D investment in 2025 was Rmb10.2bn (A$2bn), and the company holds 12,715 patents, including 4,798 domestic and 366 international invention patents. XCMG's 15th Five-Year Plan for its mining equipment strategy targets trebling mining machinery sales to US$6bn a year by 2030, lifting international sales share to 60% (from 40% in 2025), with new energy vehicles rising to a 50% share. China going global: XCMG targets being number one globally in new energy mining equipment as soon as 2030. Tim has no doubt they will achieve this. XCMG started as a construction equipment OEM, expanding to create a separate mining sector vertical with a focus on new energy vehicles and autonomous operation. Adjacent to the mining OEM facility is the XCMG and BYD battery joint venture factory, which targets 100GWh a year capacity. Phase 1 (30GWh) is already in operation, built in just 12 months and commissioned in December 2023; phase 2 (70GWh) is in preparation. This factory produces the Blade battery pack, with a long life of 7,000 cycles. XCMG manufactures the biggest truck in the world, with a 363-tonne payload at a cost of US$15m per unit. XCMG will deliver its first 240-tonne payload EV to Fortescue in early 2027, with the full US$1bn order due for commercial delivery commencing 2028. Tim believes it is time for Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher to reform the $4.5bn annual Australian mining sector imported diesel fuel subsidy to BHP, Rio Tinto and others, turning this headwind to energy security into a tailwind for decarbonisation. In his view, PM Anthony Albanese and Industry Minister Tim Ayres should ignore MCA lobbyist threats — Australia's Future Made in Australia agenda needs to be powered by domestic clean energy, not expensive, high-emissions imported diesel. Brilliant to see XCMG Australia has doubled to 70 staff across two offices, with a third in Queensland planned. XCMG has already deployed 500 autonomous trucks globally, mostly hybrid or EV. June 2025 saw XCMG deploy 100 autonomous EV trucks at an Inner Mongolia open-cut coal mine, with a 90-tonne payload and a six-minute recharge time. (https://lnkd.in/gRKbaAJY) XCMG has a MoU for cooperation with ...
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    59 分
  • Diesel Fuel Rebate Underpins BHP's Inaction - Tim Buckley - Ep70

    Diesel Fuel Rebate Underpins BHP's Inaction - Tim Buckley - Ep70
    2026/05/29
    Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 27 May 2026 Highlights – ACCELERATING RENEWABLES DRIVES NEM ELECTRICITY PRICE DEFLATION Amazing to see electricity price DEFLATION being delivered in Australia in the middle of the latest fossil fuel war, with its resulting hyperinflation of global fossil fuel prices. The Australian Energy Regulator has released its final Default Market Offer (DMO) starting 1 July 2026. Residential flat rate standing offer prices will fall by between 3-5% in NSW and by 7.2% in South East Queensland compared to last year, while South Australian households will have a modest increase of 1.4%. Small businesses will see reductions across all three regions, with prices decreasing by 7-12% in South Australia, 10-14% in South East Queensland, and 9.0-21% in NSW. Earlier this week the Essential Services Commission delivered a further reduction in the Victorian Default Offer; FY2026–27 will be on average 5% lower than last year for households. For small businesses the price is down on average 6%. A major contributing factor is the record high investments into clean energy by Australia's public – with over 400k home battery installs totalling >11GWh achieved in just 11 months, supporting the 3GW pa of rooftop solar installs. Lowlights – China installed just 75GW of RE in 4MCY2026, -41%$ yoy Solar installs of 51GW in 4M 2026 -51% yoy. Still more than the RoW combined, but disappointingly down in the middle of year. China added a depressing 28GW of fossil powered capacity YTD 2026, +26% yoy. Why? China is consolidating after knocking the lights out last year. But also GDP growth is still on track at +5% yoy, and Industrial value-add +5.6% yoy. Keeping their govt. firepower in-case Trump attacks China again, and this time has an impact, unlike the last few times! In the electricity sector, total electricity generation was +5.4% yoy YTD 2026, unfortunately with nuclear down yoy, coal power was +3.8% yoy. Not what we want to see continue over the rest of 2026. Main Story – The ABC / Guardian Australia Epic reveal A major exposé on ABC Four Corners on Monday, in collaboration with the Guardian, revealed irrefutable evidence of BHP reversing its commitments to meaningfully cut emissions in a credible timeframe. The egregious walkback, as the climate crisis escalates, was laid out in hundreds of pages of leaked internal company records. What BHP does matters. It is the world's largest mining company by market capitalisation, generating revenues of US$51bn in the last financial year with underlying earnings of US$26bn and a US$18bn pre-tax profit to its shareholders. Andrew Mackenzie, BHP's CEO until 2019, said publicly that decarbonisation was a strategic imperative, with failure to act posing an existential risk. Its Pilbara decarbonisation plans were urgent and comprehensive, and involved rapid electrification of locomotives and haulage trucks, and a massive buildout of solar to reduce diesel and gas dependence. It had plans to deploy US$3bn in decarbonisation investment by 2030 to underpin its climate targets and secure its licence to operate. Then it all went to the proverbial. In 2024, CEO Mike Henry introduced BHP's Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP, aka CRAP), which sounds great except for it being entirely hollow. BHP massively delayed its entire decarbonisation trajectory until after 2030 – trashing its stated intention to address climate risk and abrogating its corporate responsibility to act in this critical decade. Astonishingly, the "plan" forecasts BHP's global emissions will rise from FY2025-FY2030. Up is not down. There is currently categorically zero chance of BHP's plans meeting its net zero by 2050 commitment. In the knowledge that this story was coming, BHP vigorously cranked up the spin machine. A curiously timed pamphlet, released last week by economics consultancy Mandala, which has close ties to the PMO, broke down top ASX listed industrial corporates' global scope 1 and 2 emissions profiles in FY2025 vs FY2020, conveniently pitching BHP as a corporate leader. BHP then mounted an ad campaign trumpeting the trumped-up claims. To call Mandala's brochure misleading is generous. BHP primarily relies on the electrification of BHP's huge Chilean copper mining operations and the closure of the high emissions NickelWest business to boost BHP's decarbonisation credentials and obscures BHP's dereliction of its responsibilities in the Pilbara. Production-based emissions intensity would tell a different story on BHP's progress, and that of other giants like Rio featured by Mandala – despite the coordinated reporting in The Australian engineered to promulgate the Mandala talking points while bashing genuine decarbonisation leader Fortescue. Why the heel dragging by BHP? Follow the money – the billions paid to the big miners each year by the federal government to maintain their imported diesel addiction. In Australia, BHP ...
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    51 分
  • Silicon to Solar, Australia's Risk, Return, Reward - Oliver Hartley - Ep69

    Silicon to Solar, Australia's Risk, Return, Reward - Oliver Hartley - Ep69
    2026/05/19

    The Silicon to Solar study allowed Oliver Hartley and his colleagues assess the opportunity for Australia to play a role in the global solar PV value chain.

    In this Spark Club podcast Oliver shares how Australia can indeed play a meaningful role in the global solar value chain.

    All the right elements are there for the taking. A deep global market, big project experience and expertise, willing partners, and a key pillar in our low-cost clean energy intensive industries of the future.

    A fascinating conversation. Enjoy the podcast.

    Link to:
    ARENA AusSi Study-Knowledge Sharing Report
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    35 分
  • Pre-budget LNG and diesel rebate tax reform & The Green Metal Statecraft report

    Pre-budget LNG and diesel rebate tax reform & The Green Metal Statecraft report
    2026/05/10
    Highlights – The SEC Sydney conference Brilliant to see a full house standing room only for Minister Bowen's talk.Great to have >8000 attendees to the wider trade hall and >100 speakers over two days in up to 8 theatres concurrently. So many people pulling in the right direction, reinvigorating. Highlights – Fuel Tax Credit reform Whilst the Albanese government has ruled out FTC reform in next TUES budget, it is still a campaign CEF and our allies are working extensively on, maybe for MYEFO Dec'2026.Brilliant to see Twiggy, Chair of FMG, give a SEC keynote speech, and more than half of it was on the need for FTC reform starting in the mining sector. FMG is busy funding an ad campaign to elevate the topic and inform voters. Twiggy's slide deck was mostly leveraging my CEF colleague Matt Pollard's number crunching and work. Highlights – The Cheaper Home Batteries Program and Accelerating capital deployments Almost every presenter at the SEC conference talked about the brilliant milestone of >10GWh combined across 380,000 new home battery installs in just 10 months.April 2026 was a record high, showing how much capital and skills can be deployed at speed and scale when the policy / economics are aligned.Treasurer Chalmers has allocated $7.2bn for the home battery scheme, and to-date $3.3bn has been deployed, including a $1bn in the month of April. Nothing like a single program in a single month deploying $1bn to kick up the momentum.CEF & Greenhouse are tracking budget and capital deployments in cleantech, decarbonisation, electrification and green metal value-add exports and since the start of 2023, an additional $90bn has been put on the table - $82bn federally and $8bn collectively from the states. This $8bn was bumped up nicely last week with the WA Government putting a $1.4bn Clean Energy Fund into the WA State Budget.We have tracked in CY2025 deployments of some $15bn, and in the first 4 months of 2026, we have tracked another $6bn (an $18bn run-rate). CCF and ARIA had been running campaigns to push the governments to accelerate the speed and scale of capital deployments, and we are seeing progress. From 1 July 2026 the new $5bn Net Zero Fund opens its doors, so there is capacity building. But good to see momentum improving. Highlights – More RE share => lower energy prices AEMO QED report highlighted RE share in 1QCY2026 was 46%, after the record high 50% share seen in 4QCY2025. So we are making progress. We also saw reports the installed utility scale BESS capacity will treble in the next 1-2 years, making grid reliability better, and now batteries are the #1 price setting technology in the NEM, diluting the power of gas peakers in setting high prices at times of high demand. BESS => deflationAnd also worth thinking about the contrast of 2026 vs 2022: in 2026, petrol prices are up 50% vs the start of this year, but domestic gas prices are down 20% vs the start of this year, and electricity prices are down 12% as well. Last time we had a fossil fuel industry war back in 2022 when Putin invaded Ukraine, petrol prices doubled, gas prices doubled and electricity prices trebled. Chalk and Cheese. The gas cartel is in check in 2026, and RE shares are much higher, giving proof to the fossil fuel vested interests lie that RE => higher energy prices. The opposite, we now understand fossil fuel prices are hyper inflationary.And energy independence is a new key theme to add in support of electrification and decarbonisation. We will win this fight, we just need to go twice as fast. Lowlights The Albanese government has ruled out a 25% LNG export levy, very disappointing. The government has made "now is not the time" their mantra to show a lack of political will, using the excuse their #1 priority is to secure oil imports for Australia and they don't have the capacity to do two things at once. Very poor form, but we can never under-estimate the power of the incumbent fossil fuel industry, their lobbyists and their corrupting donations.We did secure an East Coast Gas reservation of 20% of production from 1 July 2027. Good and bad, it helps reduce energy cost inflation for sure, but it also means the hurdle for electrification and decarbonisation is harder, given methane is cheaper. Main Story – Our Clean Energy Finance Report: Green Metal Statecraft: Policy, Investment and Technology Trends in the Green Iron Evolution https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/CEF_Green-Metal-Statecraft_-Policy-Investment-and-Technology-Trends-in-the-Green-Iron-Evolution.pdf The decarbonisation and electrification of the global iron and steel industry is undergoing a structural recalibration, shifting from a period of speculative optimism on the now deflated hype regarding the rapid deployment of GH2, and into a slower decarbonisation trajectory.This report provides qualitative update of the investment, technology and enabling policy trends that will underpin the transformation of the iron and ...
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    43 分
  • Australia's energy crisis silver linings - Tim Buckley - Ep67

    Australia's energy crisis silver linings - Tim Buckley - Ep67
    2026/04/12
    Highlights – The Business Leaders Forum at Boao, China Tim attended the Boao Forum in Hainan Island, China, joining an Australian delegation that included Oliver Yates, Frank Jotzo, Justin Punch, Jenny Selway, Geoff Brooks, Andrew Forrest and six members of the FMG green team, and Australian Ambassador to China Scott Dewar. China's stated position remains one of full commitment to electrification and decarbonisation. Highlights – PRRT Reform The ACTU continues to call for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, with the objective of capturing windfall profits and generating tax revenues of up to $10bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia. The Albanese government is reported to be considering options to impose a new levy on gas multinationals, as well as further changes to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax (PRRT). CEF's Matt Pollard has published a detailed analysis (featured in Pearls & Wisdom) examining how the Queensland State Government's 2022 move to a progressive tiered royalty system saw the state receive 40 cents in the dollar for coal export sales above $300/t, with five lower tiers starting at 7% when coal prices are depressed. This generated $18bn in FY2023, compared to NSW receiving $4.5bn under its existing framework. The coal industry recorded $50bn in gross profit in a single year during a period of elevated energy prices affecting consumers. Highlights – Accelerating Capital Deployments Treasurer Chalmers' Single Front Door pilot is now operational. The Treasurer noted: "The supply chain disruptions we are seeing as a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East demonstrate just how important it is to build up our sovereign capability in these essential areas." Four project proposals are under consideration: HAMR — converting biomass into low-carbon liquid fuels, leveraging the Federal Government's $1.1bn low-carbon liquid fuels funding via the CEFC Ardea Resources' Kalgoorlie Nickel & Cobalt Project (WA) — one of Australia's largest nickel and cobalt resources New Energy Transport's Wilton Project (south-west of Sydney) — a large-scale zero-emission heavy road freight depot Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners' Murchison Green Hydrogen Project (mid-west WA) — a green hydrogen plant proposing large-scale green ammonia production using wind, solar, and desalination. This proposal received an $814m Hydrogen Headstart grant from ARENA in March 2025. The project's path to FID appears contingent on securing a long-term offtake agreement and an Asian CBAM mechanism. Government capital deployments total $4.5bn year-to-date as of April 2026, representing an annualised run-rate of $16bn, up from CY2025's $15bn — and excluding a potential Tomago deployment of up to $10bn. Lowlights Canavan and Co's coal-to-oil proposal is a thought bubble. (stronger language in the podcast) Main Story – CEF Op-Ed in The Energy: Lessons for Australia from the Global Energy Crisis As global oil markets face significant uncertainty and price volatility, China has spent two decades building energy independence as a strategic hedge against exactly the kind of energy disruption now affecting global markets. At the recent Boao Forum in Hainan, energy security framed every panel across the week. China's position was clearly stated: it will maintain its electrification and decarbonisation targets and engage with any nation that wishes to participate. This stands in contrast to Washington's current posture. Building a new oil refinery would take approximately a decade, and no private investors are currently proposing to do so in Australia. Australia's two remaining refineries are sub-scale, ageing, and have received ongoing government subsidies. Coal-to-liquid technology has not attracted significant investment in comparable economies. Australia does not need to replicate China's political model to draw lessons from its long-term energy planning approach. A 15-year transition horizon for the trucking sector — shifting away from imported diesel — is achievable if investment begins now. Rooftop solar can be installed within hours. An EV purchased today eliminates imported fuel dependency for approximately 20 years, directly contributing to domestic energy security. One observable consequence of the current geopolitical environment is that electrification timelines are likely to accelerate globally. What's Coming Up Tim is travelling to Perth to speak at a Critical Battery Minerals conference, presenting CEF's recent report on China's expansion into critical minerals, strategic metals mining, and upstream value-adding, and the implications for Australia. 6–7 May 2026 — SEC Sydney Conference 12 May 2026 — Federal Budget 2026
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    47 分
  • Australia missing out on China's $120b global investment blitz - Tim Buckley Ep66

    Australia missing out on China's $120b global investment blitz - Tim Buckley Ep66
    2026/03/23
    Grant McDowell is in London and Tim Buckley is in Sydney recording the Spark Club Podcast on the 23rd March 2026 Highlights – Draft AER Default Market Offer Brilliant to see the Australian Energy Regulator has today flagged draft default market offer (DMO) electricity pricing down ⬇️ 1% to ⏬ 10% for residential consumers, and between ⬇️ 8% to ⏬ 21% for small business consumers The DMO sets an efficiently priced safety-net for households and small businesses on standing offer electricity plans and acts as a reference price to help consumers compare market offers. This is the draft ruling, with the final ruling released May 2026 for effect for the 12 months starting 1 July 2026. This is consistent with Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)'s quarterly energy dynamics highlighting Australia hit a record high 51% RenewableEnergy share in the 4QCY2025, and wholesale electricity prices fell by >40% yoy as a result. Highlights – PRRT reform - Petroleum Resource Rent Tax - Dodge The ACTU this week is calling for a flat 25% tax on Australian LNG to replace the entirely failing PRRT, to capture the wind fall war-profits being generated, and to then use the massive tax revenues of up to $40bn to fund energy poverty relief across Australia. Highlights – CATL CY2025 results highlight their global leadership and scale Nothing short of staggering to watch the rise and rise of China's CATL to supremacy in battery manufacturing. Their speed & scale of technology innovation is amazing to see. 🔋 a ⏫ 42% yoy jump in net profit to Rmb72.2bn (US$10.4bn) before one-off items, on sales ⏫ 17% yoy to Rmb424bn. 🔋 a ⏫ 39% yoy lift in sales volume of lithium-ion batteries to 661GWh 🔋 CATL has a massive home market advantage. China is the world's largest EV & BESS market. China's EV industry continued to grow sales nearly 30% yoy to >16 million units. 🔋 CATL sold 541GWh of power batteries, ⏫ 41.9% yoy, propelling the company to a new all-time high in global market share. 🔋 CATL employs >23,000 R&D personnel, investing Rmb22bn in CY2025, +19% yoy (5.2% of sales). CATL stands as the sole battery industry firm selected for the "Top 100 Global Innovators." Total number of domestic & foreign patents owned and applied for by CATL reached 54,538. Lowlights The AFR is running a Minerals Council of Australia line that the Albanese government will ignore their super majority and leave the $11bn annual subsidy for high emissions super expensive imported diesel fuels in place. Claiming now is not the time. Tim disagrees. We need to learn from the current crisis and put in place Main Story – NEW CEF REPORT: CHINA'S $120bn INVESTMENT BLITZ INTO GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERALS LEAVES AUSTRALIA EXPOSED Climate Energy Finance report warns Australia's dig-and-ship economy faces a clear and present threat as China systematically diversifies away from Australian supply across lithium, iron ore and critical minerals New report released 19th March – Raw Power: China locks-in global dominance of critical minerals and metals with $120bn outbound investment surge – finds that China's accelerating outbound resource investment program is reducing China's supply chain risks and locking-in its global dominance of key materials as it diversifies away from its dependence on Australian exports. This presents a clear and present economic risk to Australia, particularly as we have yet to find a structure to allow our world leading mining sector to move meaningfully beyond "dig-and-ship". CEF's report finds that: Australia holds world-significant reserves of the critical minerals and strategic metals that underpin the zero-emissions economy – bauxite, copper, nickel, rare earths – and is the world's #1 exporter of both lithium and iron ore, with China the overwhelmingly dominant destination for both. Yet Australia fails to process onshore, as a result ranking 105th of 145 countries on Harvard's Atlas of Economic Complexity, behind Botswana and Côte d'Ivoire, with manufacturing accounting for just 6% of GDP.CEF has tracked China investing more than US$120bn around the globe into mining and upstream processing since 2023 – building lithium supply chains across Africa and South America, anchoring the US$23 billion Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, and increasingly developing in-country processing capacity across partner nations. This is starkly illustrated by Simandou, which delivered its first shipment to China in January. Once fully ramped up by 2029, it will make Guinea the world's third largest iron ore exporter, producing high grade ore suitable for green steel. It is the centrepiece of China's explicit strategy to reduce its 80% reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore supply, directly threatening Australia's long dominance.In lithium mining, China's own domestic production now outstrips Australia's, where as recently as 2023 Australia had a 50% global market share. The absence of new Chinese ...
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    46 分
  • Local Content Push - 20% for wind towers in Australia - Tim Buckley - Ep65

    Local Content Push - 20% for wind towers in Australia - Tim Buckley - Ep65
    2026/02/22
    Grant McDowell & Tim Buckley– Spark Club Podcast 19 Feb 2026 - Hi and welcome to Spark Club podcast. I'm your host Grant McDowell. We are recording this podcast on the Garigal lands of the Eora nation and pay our respects to elders past and present. Welcome. And welcome Tim Buckley. Highlights Domestic firmed RE deployment The Clean Energy Council's 4Q2025 Investment Report demonstrates a rebound in large-scale renewable energy and storage investment across Australia. The quarter delivered record commissioning outcomes across generation and batteries, strong financial close activity. Five renewable generation projects (1.2 GW) and 5 storage projects (1.1 GW) reached FID during 4Q2025, with total capex >$4 billion across generation, storage and hybrid assets. newly commissioned renewable and storage projects. Nine generation projects were completed totalling 2.1GW of new. 4 storage projects (1.9 GW / 4.9 GWh) became operational, beating records broken in Q3 2025, reinforcing Australia's accelerating energy transition. The forward pipeline remains robust. There are currently 81 generation projects (13GW) and 75 storage projects (13 GW / 35GWh) either financially committed or under construction. This month started with NSW awarding contracts to six huge 8-hour battery projects, including one of the biggest in Australia – the 300MW and 3,500 megawatt hour Great Western BESS, All are due to be completed by 2030, and some are supersized above eight hours of storage. 1.2 GW and 12 GWh of long duration storage, massively further undermining the role of methane and PHS. This week also saw NSW announce an extra tender for more firmed renewables capacity to fill looming coal gap under Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LTESAs) to leverage the fast to deploy BESS and solar leveraging infill opportunities across NSW and importantly, leverage the Battery boom to get more zero emissions generation into the mix. CBAM KEY TO GREEN COMMODITY OPPORTUNITY: JOTZO REVIEW Professor Frank Jotzo's Carbon Leakage Review Report to Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is finally public. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/carbon-leakage-review-final-report We agree with the review's finding that measures additional to the Safeguard Mechanism "may be required and desirable over time, for specific commodities at high exposure to carbon leakage risk in domestic markets…. A border carbon adjustment would be the most suitable option in these cases… [to] support the emergence of green commodity production in Australia, harnessing this country's opportunities to be a major contributor to global industrial decarbonisation through exports." It is clear that we need a price signal to drive decarbonisation of trade-exposed Australian industries through the extensive buildout of renewables infrastructure at speed and scale. Critical to all of the above is a price on carbon, leveraging and enhancing our domestic actions so as to provide a stronger signal for development of carbon pricing in international trade, and building on the price signal of the EU CBAM with an Asian CBAM, as we argued in our 2025 report. This would help catalyse investment into industrial decarbonisation at a speed and scale commensurate with the climate emergency and the green economy opportunity. GM - I'd like to pick up on minor issue relating to the design of the REGO in Australia replacing the LGC. The calculation mechanism for the Australian REGO is out of sync with the global standard. The REGO certificate is limited to the 1MWh per certificate rather than down to the watt hour per trading period. Sounds trivial but the REGO has a fundamental flaw as it requires the excess to be rolled over into the next trading period. This volume won't be accepted in the EU, meaning there will be small amounts of energy volume which can't be counted for every half hour trading period for the year. This flaw creates numerous problems as a global energy matching standard emerges in a number of forms; CBAMs in EU and AsiaGreen product standards - green hyrdogen green steel.and likely changes to GHGP Scope 2 in 2027. This minor flaw is annoying and with a minor change to the REGO now we can save Australian exporters a world of pain for years to come. Middle Powers Highlight As the Middle Powers are a big topic for us this year, was there anything that jumped out to you since our last conversation? EV Buses in India Tim - KKR investment in electric buses in India. EV busses in India are now 30% lower total cost of ownership relative to diesel alternatives. The 30% cost advantage was enough to get KR over the line to put capital into rolling out EV buses in India. Australia risks being wedged. Australia must be open to international trade with all nations and avoid being wedged between China and the US. Lowlights Whyalla The SA Government has shelved their green hydrogen plans last year, and now the SA Treasurer has overtly flagged their ...
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    33 分
  • Setting the Stage for 2026 - Tim Buckley Ep64

    Setting the Stage for 2026 - Tim Buckley Ep64
    2026/02/03

    Quick 2025 retrospective

    We see the Climate Energy Finance's role as to provide a narrative difference to the mainstream media, and to try to leverage global / non-US developments to better inform Australia's understanding of the energy system transformation, the threats and opportunities for Australia.

    Our three main pillars of conversation in 2025 were;

    China
    BESS - Batteries were likely to surprise, and they certainly did, even CEF's most bullish expectations.
    Australia's opportunity to go faster with some wins and many frustrations.
    And
    Carbon peaked emissions in 2024, flat to down in 2025 – despite 5% GDP growth.

    Big themes 2026 – From Grant McDowell

    • In 2025 we discussed the rise and rise of China. In 2026 I think we'll see the rise and rise of the middle powers.
      • New world disorder is opening up opportunities for China to collaborate with the middle powers, and beyond. China has learned from the mistakes of the Belt Road Initiative and seeking to collaborate.
      • China's EVs are displacing over one million barrels of oil demand a day. The middle powers are moving from molecules to electrons for clean electricity and transport.
      • Middle powers are tired of being lumbered with decades long expensive fossil generators are now leaning into many small and cheap. See Ethiopia's ban on petrol and diesel vehicle imports.
    • Carbon trajectory – EU CBAM helps set a new market for world trade and carbon polluting countries. So once again we'll be following the work of Ember and Lauri Myllyirta.
    • And our conversations will naturally include Australia. I'll be watching our energy transformation closely as we face a chicken and egg problem. As coal generation is extended investors are reluctant to back utility scale wind and solar projects. Which then allows the coal generation to extend. Utility scale batteries will play a role, however wind generation is key and every effort should be made to deploy, deploy, deploy.

    Lets review each of those in turn. - Tim Buckley

    1. China's "Small and beautiful", a positive reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach.
      1. Mark Carney's middle powers speech, the India-UK FTA, and countries across Africa et al embracing electrification and energy independence,
      2. Small and beautiful, a reframing of the BRI to a more win-win-win approach.
      3. CEF has tracked >US%210bn of OFDI in cleantech since 2023.
      4. CEF has another major report pending on this, looking at China going global in resources and resource-value-adding over the last 3 years.
    2. Carbon trajectory - 100% agree.
      1. China will spend the next 2 years expanding their national ETS by 50% to cover major industrial sectors, and then when ready, they'll starting talking about international alignment with the EU CBAM. Meanwhile, they will get ready.
      2. Japan's GX-ETS strategy includes carbon pricing being launched from April 2026, covering 60% of national emissions, a floor and ceiling price out to 2035, by 2030 A$18=46/t, then doubling again by 2035.
    3. Australia electricity generation problems - True
      1. The CIS has to move from a lot of large scale announcements through to delivering projects into FID and construction, at speed and scale. Jury still out.
      2. AEMO 4QCY2025 Scorecard confirms this – strong growth in the pipeline across Australia, but not enough generation getting through FID.
      3. We are making progress. Great to see this week AEMO QED 4QCY2025 talk about RE being >50% for 4QCY2025 and the result was a near halving of electricity prices.
      4. And a lot of the media framing of the heatwaves of the last few weeks in South East Australia was how CER and solar is increasing grid resilience and providing power when most needed. A very positive reframing.

    Other CEF priorities in 2026:

    1. Fuel Tax Credits
      1. Re FTC - In December 2025, Battery-electric heavy duty trucks crossed 50% of new sales in China. That is profound for accelerating the electrification of everything story (think passenger EV adoption, energy independence, a $50bn pa onshoring on energy supply into Australia) and for CEF's work in diesel fuel rebate reform, give we need to embrace this, rather than keep providing an $11bn imported diesel fuel subsidy headwind to decarbonisation of mining and trucking.
    2. Safeguard mechanism review
    3. Green metal exports
    4. Government capital deployment still too slow

    And it wouldn't be a talk with CEF without talking about China, again and again!
    The new installs out for December 2025 this week are mind-blowing, again.
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