The 2026 World Cup semi-finals are set. For the first time in World Cup history, the four semi-finalists are the top four ranked teams in the world. Spain vs France in Dallas on Tuesday. England vs Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday.

Coach's-eye segment on the biggest statistical trend of the tournament: every team that has shot first in a World Cup penalty shootout at this tournament has lost. 4 for 4. And in the last 13 WC shootouts before this one, teams going first have won just 15% of them. Before that: 49%, essentially a coin flip. Something has shifted. If your captain wins the coin toss, they should pick to shoot SECOND. Most coaches are still telling them to shoot first.

Plus: quarter-final recap. France 2-0 Morocco (Mbappé goal + assist). Spain 2-1 Belgium (Merino again, and Spain's 6-match clean-sheet run ends). England 2-1 Norway after extra time (Bellingham brace, including one goal that Norway's manager thinks was affected by "a cable falling from the sky" — being called the Cable of God, a 1986 callback). Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (Álvarez golazo from outside the box in the 112th, Argentina's 6th straight WC semi).

My call for the whole tournament: Spain still to win it. England to beat Argentina in the semi. Spain to beat France. Final in New Jersey on July 19: Spain lifts it.