Single Family Market Update: Rates stuck near 6%, starts fall, manufactured housing competes (2026.02.06)

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Mortgage rates edged up to 6.11%, marking a second week holding just above 6% after briefly dipping below in early January
Post–Warsh nomination volatility appears to have closed the near-term window for sub-6% mortgage rates
Housing starts fell 4.6% in October, with single-family starts down 5.4%, signaling a builder pullback that began mid-2025
Declining starts point to reduced new-supply competition later in the year, but near-term builder pressure remains through Q1 and early Q2
Building permits also declined, reinforcing a slower construction pipeline heading into spring and summer
Inflation reaccelerated in December, with CPI up 0.4% month-over-month and shelter costs rising 5.2% year-over-year
Firmer inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated for DSCR, bridge, and flip loans
Floating on expected rate cuts is becoming increasingly risky as markets reprice the Fed outlook
Champion Homes posted strong earnings, highlighting growing demand for affordable manufactured and modular housing
Manufactured homes priced near $185K plus land now directly compete with entry-level stick-built resale inventory
Entry-level flips in rural and exurban markets face rising competition from new manufactured housing alternatives

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