Is Scotland heading for a property crash—or does the country’s chronic shortage of homes make that unlikely?

Dr. John Boyle, Director of Research & Strategy at Rettie, joins Nick and Steven to examine the data behind Scotland’s housing emergency, house prices, rental growth and the future of the private rented sector.

From Aberdeen’s dramatic fall and the 18-year property cycle to landlord exits, rent controls, build-to-rent and student accommodation, Dr. John explains what the latest figures reveal—and why some commonly quoted property statistics can be misleading.

EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS

• What Scotland’s housing emergency actually means and why homelessness and temporary accommodation are increasing

• Why housing costs of approximately 25%–30% of gross income are generally considered affordable

• How annual housebuilding has fallen from around 25,000 homes before the financial crash to fewer than 20,000

• Why a new social home can now cost approximately £250,000–£300,000

• Why Scotland’s 2026 house-price growth forecast was revised from 3.5% to around 0%

• Why the Scottish market continues to average approximately 100,000 property transactions each year

• Why Dr. John does not believe the 18-year property cycle will produce a house-price crash in 2026

• Why a collapse in transactions can be more damaging to the property industry than falling prices

• How Aberdeen went from having higher average prices than Edinburgh to lower prices than Dundee

• Why Aberdeen prices remain down while property transactions are beginning to recover

• The risks of using short-term house-price figures to judge smaller towns and local markets

• Why landlord registration figures do not provide a reliable picture of landlords leaving the sector

• Why Dr. John describes the landlord exodus as a “trickle rather than a flood”

• How rent controls encouraged landlords to raise rents to market value between tenancies

• Why experienced landlords are now more likely to review and increase rents every year

• How the 8% Additional Dwelling Supplement affects new landlords while producing record tax revenue

• Why rent controls caused institutional build-to-rent investment in Scotland to stall

• How construction costs rising faster than rents have created a viability problem for build-to-rent

• Why purpose-built student accommodation can be more financially viable than standard rental developments

• Whether Glasgow could eventually face an oversupply of student accommodation

• How co-living developments could provide another housing option for young professionals

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Meet Dr. John Boyle

01:08 - Scotland’s housing emergency explained

04:04 - Why Scotland is not building enough homes

07:08 - The rising cost of social housing

10:55 - Scotland’s property-market outlook

14:32 - Will the 18-year property cycle cause a crash?

18:25 - What could trigger the next property crash?

21:39 - What happened to Aberdeen’s property market?

25:31 - Finding growth areas and interpreting property data

30:28 - Are landlords really leaving Scotland?

35:23 - How the 8% ADS is affecting investors

37:47 - Why rent controls caused rents to rise

40:11 - The future of rent-control zones

44:57 - Build-to-rent and institutional investment

53:03 - Why build-to-rent schemes are struggling

56:47 - Is Glasgow building too much student accommodation?

59:49 - Could co-living help address the housing shortage?

01:00:52 - Where to connect with Dr. John

CONNECT WITH DR. JOHN

Dr. John Boyle MRICS — Director of Research & Strategy at Rettie & Co

Website: https://www.rettie.co.uk/

NETWORKING EVENTS

First Wednesday of every month

📍 Aberdeen | Dundee | Edinburgh | GlasgowFollow our socials for speakers and details

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