『Redefining Energy』のカバーアート

Redefining Energy

Redefining Energy

著者： Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid
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Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation...
Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen.
Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/
X handle: @Redef_EnergyLaurent Segalen and Gerard Reid 経済学
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  • 233. To predict the future, “In BNEF we Trust” - Jun26

    233. To predict the future, “In BNEF we Trust” - Jun26
    2026/06/15
    The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have made significant progress in recent years. Yet they remain largely top-down institutions shaped by policy priorities. When trillions of dollars in investment decisions are at stake, investors and operators increasingly turn to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and its team of more than 400 specialists.

    Why does BNEF command such trust? BNEF combines Bloomberg’s unparalleled market data capabilities with deep expertise in batteries, solar, electric vehicles, and electrification. Unlike many international agencies, BNEF operates without a political mandate or advocacy agenda. Its bottom-up analysis provides investors with a more practical view of market realities than traditional top-down forecasts.

    In this episode, Gerard and Laurent welcome Albert Cheung, CEO of BNEF, to discuss the findings of the New Energy Outlook 2026. The discussion begins with a review of NEO 2020. BNEF was notably accurate in forecasting the "electrons" side of the transition—solar, batteries, and EVs—while overestimating the pace of hydrogen and carbon capture deployment. Even so, its forecasting record remains among the strongest in the industry.

    Looking ahead, NEO 2026 projects a rapidly electrifying global energy system. Solar power, batteries, EVs, and heat pumps are reshaping demand while reducing exposure to fossil-fuel price shocks. Oil demand is expected to decline as EV adoption accelerates. Gas demand may continue growing in the near term to support rising electricity consumption, but both oil and gas fall sharply under stronger net-zero pathways.

    By 2032, solar is projected to become the world's largest source of electricity. Battery storage will scale rapidly, enabling more flexible and resilient power systems.
    The report also makes clear that, despite substantial progress—especially in China—current technologies and policies are still insufficient to fully achieve global net-zero goals. However, the gap between ambition and reality is narrowing thanks to energy security concerns, declining costs, and continued technological progress.

    Overall, it was a thoughtful, insightful, and hopeful conversation. The energy transition is advancing. We are getting there.

    Resources New Energy Outlook 2026:
    https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/
    BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook is currently slated for publication on June 16:
    https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/electric-vehicle-outlook/
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    29 分
  • 232. GB’s NESO: the “cool” operator - Jun26

    232. GB’s NESO: the “cool” operator - Jun26
    2026/06/08
    Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Fintan Slye, CEO of NESO — Great Britain’s National Energy System Operator.
    In a lively and wide-ranging discussion, we explored NESO’s governance and its critical role across the British energy system: from real-time system operation — balancing supply and demand every second — to whole-system planning, market design, and transmission network operation.
    We covered an extraordinary breadth of topics: balancing costs, electricity prices for consumers, energy security, and the challenge of delivering Power 2030 in a system increasingly reliant on renewables. We discussed batteries, the evolution of balancing markets, the explosive growth of datacenters, and the ever-growing grid connection queue — and, above all, how to keep the entire system stable and efficient through this transformation.
    One of the most fascinating parts of the conversation focused on datacenters. NESO is currently facing more than 100GW of connection requests, while Fintan estimates that only 8–12GW are likely to materialise. He shared the three key criteria NESO uses to prioritise and filter applications — a crucial issue as electricity demand enters a new era.
    Fintan is also a strong advocate for interconnectors. We discussed the strategic value of the current fleet and the long-term vision for expanding connections through the North Sea Islands and potentially even towards Canada.
    Throughout the conversation, one message came across clearly: there is a highly competent team at the helm of the GB energy system, and the grid will continue to improve through investment, innovation, and digitisation.
    Fintan embodies the calm confidence you want from the person helping run one of the most complex energy systems in the world. The ultimate “cool” operator.
    NESO operates today’s electricity system and designs tomorrow’s energy system to deliver reliable, clean and affordable energy for Great Britain. Find out more here: https://www.neso.energy/
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    29 分
  • 231. Car Wars: China vs. the West - Jun26

    231. Car Wars: China vs. the West - Jun26
    2026/06/01
    The global auto industry is splitting into two very different worlds — what legendary auto expert Michael Dunne calls “a tale of two countries.” Dunne, CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, has spent decades at the centre of the industry, including leadership roles as President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China.
    On one side stands the United States, increasingly resembling a modern-day Cuba: a market dominated by oversized, fuel-hungry SUVs aimed at a shrinking audience, while legacy automakers squeeze the last profits from internal combustion engines. Last year alone, Detroit’s Big Three wrote off more than $50 billion in EV investments.
    On the other side is China, moving at extraordinary speed and scale. The recent Beijing Auto Show showcased the country’s relentless innovation: 38 hectares of exhibition space — roughly 50 football fields — featuring 1,451 vehicles, including 181 world debuts, and attracting 1.3 million visitors, with only 65,000 coming from overseas. It is no longer just about BYD. Chinese giants such as Geely, SAIC, and FAW have caught up rapidly, transforming China into a market where internal combustion vehicles already feel like an afterthought.
    Only two foreign automakers still command real respect in China: Toyota and Tesla. Others — including Honda, Nissan, and most European manufacturers — are steadily losing ground.

    Meanwhile, much of the rest of the world is accelerating toward electrification as rising oil prices reshape consumer behaviour. Countries such as Thailand, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Mexico are embracing EVs, while electric vehicle sales continue to surge across Europe.
    Battery technology is still advancing, but the next decisive battleground is autonomy. Here, the United States maintains a lead through companies like Waymo and Tesla — though Chinese competitors are closing the gap quickly. 2026 may also mark the tipping point for electric trucks becoming mainstream, with adoption expected to accelerate rapidly once scale economics take hold.
    So how can non-Chinese automakers compete? Not through protectionism, but by learning from China’s playbook: moving faster, investing more aggressively in next-generation technologies, and, in some cases, partnering directly with Chinese firms.
    Yet another major challenge looms over the industry: excess manufacturing capacity. Factories in both Europe and China are currently operating at only around 50% utilisation, with the United States performing only slightly better.

    Dunne’s upcoming book, Car Wars, due out next year, explores this seismic shift in detail. It tells the story of how China built the world’s most powerful EV ecosystem — and whether Western automakers can survive the collision.
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    32 分
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