Distressed property listings have surged 42 per cent, but Australians are quietly stockpiling billions in mortgage offsets. As another RBA rate hike squeezes borrowers, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack the risks of bridging loans and parental guarantees in a falling market, and whether the government could be forced to backtrack on its controversial property tax reforms.

On this episode of Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack Australia's cooling property market, with national listings up 19.3 per cent, distressed listings climbing 42.3 per cent and another rate hike putting borrowers under pressure.

The pair examine a 168 per cent jump in bridging loan submissions and the risks of buying before selling in a falling market. They also warn about the hidden dangers of parental guarantees, negative equity and commercial property margin calls, and why investors need to understand their exposure.

But it's not all doom and gloom. Garman reveals that Westpac's mortgage offset balances have climbed from $71 billion to $81 billion in just 12 months, with National Australia Bank (NAB) reporting a similar trend. Are Australians preparing for a recession, or stockpiling cash for their next investment?

The hosts also challenge the popular 18.6-year property cycle theory, questioning whether its apparent accuracy is simply coincidence, and debate whether the government will be forced to wind back its self-managed super fund (SMSF) lending restrictions and negative gearing reforms.

Finally, it's listener questions, with the pair tackling debt recycling, the impact of falling property transactions on government tax revenue, and when investors should consider selling rather than continuing to fund a struggling portfolio.

France is already paying billions to service its debt. Australia could be heading down the same path, with only a narrow window to turn things around.

On Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman compare Australia's fiscal position with France's, examining rising debt costs, bond yields, tax settings, and public sector growth.

Garman warns Australia could be only a few years behind as government spending and debt servicing put increasing pressure on the economy.

The pair revisit France's failed wealth tax experiment and Greece's experience with spending cuts, before examining Australia's own warning signs, including weaker employment, falling stamp duty revenue, and fewer capital gains to tax.

They also compare personal, company, and capital gains tax settings, and debate whether further property tax changes could push investors out of the market.

Tarrant is sharply critical of the federal government and the ATO, predicting a royal commission and further political battles over property taxes before the next election.

The discussion also covers the impact of the SMSF residential property ban on development, rising construction costs, and the risks facing first home buyers caught in falling apartment markets.

To get in involved, leave questions for Phil and Liam, or simply share videos or memes - join the Whatsapp group here.

Prestige vendors are being asked to accept millions less, forecasters are revising their predictions down, and the RBA is hinting that inflation is worse than expected ... but will rising yields be a silver lining? Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack what it could mean for investors, first home buyers and anyone with a mortgage.

On this episode of Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman look at a market where negative equity is spreading. They discuss a report that 20,000 Perth homes are now worth less than their owners paid and a Harbourside Sydney listing where the guide has reportedly slipped from a $28 million offer to $20 million-plus.

The pair then weigh up the forecasts, including JPMorgan's revised outlook and Coolabah Capital's warning that some pockets could fall by as much as 40 per cent. Garman explains why he doesn't agree with every call, and why falling prices could open up higher yields in blue-chip suburbs for long-term investors. Both urge listeners to do their own due diligence and be wary of spruikers.

Tarrant also challenges a report that investors are shifting to new builds, while the hosts discuss what proposed changes to trusts could mean for tradies and builders, and how rising interest costs and the pullback of SMSFs are adding pressure to developers.

Then it's on to rates and politics: hints of a Melbourne Cup rate rise, what is feeding inflation beyond the war in Iran, and One Nation's pledge to restore the capital gains tax discount for up to two investment properties. Garman argues investors should factor in every political outcome, with the hosts floating a tongue-in-cheek policy of one negatively geared property per child.

To get in involved, leave questions for Phil and Liam, or simply share videos or memes - join the Whatsapp group here.

Intro: NSW collected 23 per cent less residential stamp duty in September than a year earlier, and Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman say it's only the start. But when the conversation turns to mortgage brokers, the hosts stop agreeing.

On this live episode of Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman dig into the numbers behind a sharp fall in NSW residential stamp duty: $663.7 million collected in September, down from $864.3 million a year earlier. Extrapolated across the country, they put the potential loss at $7.36 billion, a figure that sits inside the $6 billion to $8 billion range they've been predicting for months.

The pair also unpack the NSW Labor pledge to let investors restructure trusts hit by the new discretionary trust tax without triggering stamp duty, and Victoria's promise to return its property tax threshold to $50,000.

Then there's the data. Brisbane listings are up 40 per cent on last year with a clearance rate of just 20 per cent, unemployment has ticked up to 4.7 per cent, and part-time jobs have dropped by 74,000. Tarrant shares what buyer's agents and brokers are telling him on the street, from tactical finance to banks loosening up, and explains why he says now is the time to have a good broker in your corner.

And then it gets heated. Tarrant takes aim at a looming levy hike on brokers while Garman plays devil's advocate – arguing consumer protection is a fair reason for scrutiny. Who wins the argument? You'll have to listen.

Commercial property can offer higher yields, but poor due diligence, risky leases, and long vacancies can turn an investment into a costly mistake.

On Property Buzz, Liam Garman and Phil Tarrant examine the risks facing residential investors moving into commercial property as Smart Property Investment launches a six-part guide to the sector, warning that commercial is not an easy next step.

The hosts discuss cases of poor advice, inadequate due diligence, and fake leases, highlighting the need for investors to understand the sector before committing their money.

Garman explains how higher yields can signal greater risk, with prolonged vacancies, complex lease terms, and unexpected repair bills eroding returns.

Tarrant raises concerns about investors buying commercial property through super funds without understanding the risks, while the pair stress the importance of financial buffers and experienced commercial specialists.

Falling home values could blow a hole in aged care. Has anyone done the maths?

On this episode of Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman examine how a raft of recent policy announcements, from tax changes to credit card surcharges, are buffeting the economy and creating unintended consequences that will impact every Australian.

The pair pull apart the latest CPI figures to question the federal government's explanation for inflation, with Garman arguing that government spending is crowding out the private sector and weighing on productivity.

Tarrant then turns to the removal of residential lending from SMSFs, which he says is putting pressure on builders and the viability of new projects. He also argues that falling home values could undermine the aged care system, with fewer older Australians able to draw on their homes to fund entry costs, leaving families facing a difficult situation at a vulnerable time and potentially adding a significant cost to the budget.

The pair also discuss the launch of Banking Daily, Momentum Media's new financial services platform, and how it aims to deliver the latest intelligence for people working in the sector.

Rate rises, housing shortages, and shifting investor strategies are putting Australia's property market under pressure and raising bigger questions about homeownership.

On Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant is joined by Momentum Media director Alex Whitlock to examine the forces reshaping Australia's property market, from interest rates and housing supply to changing investor strategies.

The pair discuss expectations for further rate rises and why borrowers should be reviewing their mortgage costs, with Whitlock sharing how a conversation with his lender secured a significant rate reduction.

The housing shortage also comes under the microscope, with the collapse of Western Sydney builder Bathla Group highlighting the pressures facing construction and development, while community resistance to higher density continues to complicate efforts to increase supply.

Looking further ahead, Tarrant and Whitlock examine the 2026 Intergenerational Report and its implications for homeownership, wealth transfers and Australians who may rent for life, before turning to the growing appeal of high-yield inner-city Melbourne apartments for investors.

Mortgage demand is falling, borrowing costs remain under pressure, and new lending models are emerging, leaving the property finance sector facing a period of major change.

On Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant is joined by Annie Kane and Julian Barnes from Broker Daily to examine the latest developments across mortgages, lending and property finance.

The trio looks at the prospect of further rate rises, mortgage affordability and the battle between banks to win a shrinking pool of borrowers, with mortgage demand reportedly down 16 per cent year on year.

They also explore bitcoin-backed home loans, with cryptocurrency emerging as a potential source of deposit funding, while volatility and loan-to-value requirements create new risks for borrowers.

Private lending comes under the spotlight as the sector expands across development finance, raising questions about the risks building beneath the surface, while mortgage brokers continue to dominate despite banks pushing their proprietary channels.

The conversation also examines AI's potential to transform the mortgage process, from applications to decision-making, before turning to the bigger challenge facing property: how to get more housing built.