As French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq of Oman amid efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, François Picard speaks to Dawud Al Ansari, a geopolitics and energy analyst. Meanwhile, diplomacy in the Gulf is once again being tested by renewed military tensions. Al Ansari offers a nuanced assessment from an Omani perspective, arguing that the country is playing an increasingly valuable strategic role.

Rather than portraying the Sultanate as simply another Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monarchy, Al Ansari contends that this small but influential nation has deliberately cultivated its influence through neutrality, mediation and pragmatic diplomacy. While regional security remains fragile despite recent agreements, he argues that Oman will continue to prioritise stability, free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and dialogue between regional adversaries.

He also places France's recent engagement within a broader geopolitical context. The Elysée’s diplomatic and economic initiatives reflect a wider strategic interest in reducing regional instability that carries significant consequences for global energy markets and European economies. At the same time, Oman faces pressing domestic challenges. In particular, the country must diversify its economy and create opportunities for a predominantly young population, making international partnerships increasingly important.

Al Ansari also notes that geopolitical leverage is never static. While Iran has demonstrated its ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic instrument, the analyst contends that the power of the lever is likely to diminish over time as neighbouring states invest in alternative trade routes and infrastructure. The discussion ultimately presents Gulf geopolitics not as a fixed balance of power, but as an evolving landscape shaped by diplomacy, economics and long-term strategic adaptation.