Polls Are Not Crystal Balls | Portland Maine News
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Polls Are Not Crystal Balls | Portland Maine News
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Polls are getting a bad rap after recent wild swings in Wisconsin and Michigan primaries—but it’s not that they’re broken, just complicated. In Wisconsin, last-minute drama—candidate dropouts, endorsements, and late-deciding voters—threw off predictions. Michigan’s razor-thin Senate primary win also exposed how hard it is to forecast close races, especially when turnout models go awry in open primaries. Pollsters aren’t magic crystal balls; they’re snapshots of current sentiment. And while recent misses are eye-opening, historical data shows polling has been surprisingly accurate overall.
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