Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler.

Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Harry is a statistics professor at Rutgers, a member of the CFTC Innovation Committee, and one of the sharper minds at the intersection of academic probability theory and real-world prediction markets. The conversation gets into his path from poker to sports betting to prediction market research, what it's like being a bettor with a seat at the regulatory table, and a genuinely fascinating deep dive into Kelly Criterion — when to use it, when it breaks down, the case for half Kelly vs. full Kelly, and what a $3 million drawdown actually teaches you about your own edge.

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Chapters:

0:00 – Ohio's Bill to Kill Sports Betting

1:12 – Perps Coming to Kalshi?

3:12 – Chris's Substack on his Journey

4:51 – Introducing Harry Crane: CFTC Committee Member

6:45 – Harry's Scoop on Election Markets and 538

14:00 – Having a Seat at the CFTC Table

19:00 – Are Sharp Bettors Losing Faith in Prediction Markets?

26:00 – The Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly Debate

35:00 – What a $3M Drawdown Teaches You

43:00 – Card Counting, Kelly, and the Conditional Fill Problem

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

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