• Wall Street closed mixed on December 16 with the Dow down by three hundred and two points, S&P 500 slipping eleven points, while Nasdaq rebounded slightly, buoyed by gains in mega cap tech stocks like Tesla and Meta. The jobs report showed modest payroll growth, keeping investors cautious about Fed policy.

• Indian ADRs such as Infosys, Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI showed muted moves overnight, reflecting global banking sector weakness and currency concerns.

• Asian markets opened flat today: Nikkei trading near forty nine thousand three hundred eighty three, Hang Seng near twenty five thousand two hundred thirty five, and Shanghai Composite near twenty three thousand eight hundred twenty five, following declines on December 16 amid economic headwinds.

• Gift Nifty futures indicate a cautious positive bias near twenty five thousand nine hundred thirty two for the Indian market open.

• India's exports grew twenty two percent year over year in November despite tariffs, strengthening New Delhi’s position in US trade talks. Gold prices hovered around four thousand three hundred twenty six dollars per ounce.

• Domestic markets face pressure from foreign fund outflows with FIIs net selling approximately two thousand three hundred eighty two crore rupees on December 16, offset partially by domestic institutional buying. The rupee hit near record lows, impacting inflation and investor sentiment.

• Technical analysis shows Nifty support near twenty five thousand seven hundred fifty and resistance around twenty six thousand one hundred, with Bank Nifty support in the fifty eight thousand two hundred range and resistance near fifty nine thousand five hundred to sixty thousand.

• Commodities remain steady with crude oil around sixty dollars per barrel, gold maintaining strength above forty three hundred dollars, and silver consolidating near sixty three point six four dollars per ounce amid supply tightness. Base metals continue to face pressure from China’s economic slowdown.

• Traders are advised to manage risk carefully, take profits on rallies, and focus on defensive sectors amidst global and domestic uncertainty. Selective buying near technical support levels with disciplined stop losses is recommended.

- Benchmark indices ended sharply lower, with Sensex, Nifty fifty, and Bank Nifty all closing in the red amid weak global cues and sustained foreign investor selling.

- The rupee breached the ninety one mark against the US dollar for the first time, closing near a record low and amplifying concerns around imported inflation and external vulnerabilities.

- Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consumer, Bajaj Auto, and Mahindra and Mahindra stood out as key gainers, while Axis Bank, Eternal, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Tata Steel, PB Fintech, Swiggy, and Ola Electric saw steep declines.

- The newly opened KSH International IPO attracted strong anchor interest, with a defined price band and lot size, drawing attention despite the broader market weakness.

- Nifty fifty and Bank Nifty both tested key support zones, with bearish technical patterns pointing to a cautious near term outlook and elevated volatility.

- Realty, IT, Metal, Oil and Gas, Pharma, midcaps, and smallcaps underperformed, while Consumer Durables and Media were rare pockets of strength in an otherwise weak sectoral landscape.

- On the regulatory front, RBI’s nod for HDFC Bank to acquire up to nine point five percent in IndusInd Bank and SEBI’s deferral of a key nomination framework phase were notable developments for banks and mutual funds.

- Commodities saw pressure as Brent crude, MCX gold, and MCX silver all declined, hinting at profit booking after recent rallies and interacting with the rupee’s slide on the macro front.

- The technical setup for tomorrow suggests consolidation with downside risk, but strong domestic inflows and healthy SIP trends may turn further dips into accumulation opportunities for quality large caps.

- The key actionable takeaway is to respect support levels, hedge currency exposure where relevant, and selectively use current weakness to build positions in fundamentally strong, rupee beneficiary blue chips.

Welcome to today's "What will move the Market" show. I'm your host Prem. It's Tuesday, December 16, 2025, and here is everything you need to know as the markets open for today. Wall Street ended lower on Monday as artificial intelligence concerns rattled investors. The Nasdaq dropped zero point six percent, the S&P five hundred fell zero point two percent, and the Dow dipped zero point one percent. Broadcom and Oracle led the selloff, with Broadcom facing margin pressure on custom AI chips and Oracle's capex hitting the street harder than expected. Futures are pointing slightly higher this morning ahead of a crucial jobs report due today and inflation data coming Thursday.

Indian ADRs showed mixed overnight moves. Infosys traded around seventeen point forty-nine, while HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance faced some weakness as global energy and tech headwinds persisted. Watch for IT sector rotation given Wall Street's AI retreat.

Asian markets declined overnight. Nikkei two hundred twenty-five closed down one point three one percent, Hang Seng down one point three four percent, and Shanghai Composite down zero point five five percent. Gift Nifty is pointing to a flat to slightly negative open at twenty-six thousand eighty-five, suggesting consolidation rather than strong directional moves today. The broader Asian mood remains cautious ahead of U.S. data releases this week.

On the global front, China's yuan is strengthening with offshore yuan near seven point zero-four-eight to the dollar. This signals Beijing's policy support is taking hold, but for India, it could impact export competitiveness and capital flows. FII selling continues at roughly two billion dollars in December so far, though domestic institutions have cushioned the market with robust buying of forty thousand crore. Additionally, keep monitoring U.S.-India trade negotiations given ongoing rupee weakness near record lows.

Domestically, the RBI's recent rate cut and liquidity measures provide a supportive backdrop. Nifty fifty holds support at twenty-five thousand nine hundred to twenty-five thousand eight hundred fifty, with resistance at twenty-six thousand fifty to twenty-six thousand one hundred fifty. Bank Nifty support sits at fifty-nine thousand to fifty-eight thousand eight hundred, with resistance at fifty-nine thousand eight hundred to sixty thousand. A decisive break above twenty-six thousand one hundred fifty could trigger a rally toward twenty-six thousand three hundred.

On commodities, crude oil trades near sixty-one to sixty-two dollars per barrel, gold around twenty-six hundred fifty dollars per ounce in U.S. markets, and silver near thirty-point-five dollars per ounce. Watch commodity moves as they drive sentiment.

For traders today, consolidation is the likely theme. Avoid chasing broken-down AI names while remaining selective on dips. Focus on banking and non-cyclicals showing relative strength while awaiting clarity from the U.S. jobs report. Stay cautious until global risk sentiment stabilizes. Stay tuned for our evening wrap and subscribe to this podcast to hear us every day. Send in your questions and market observations. See you tomorrow.

The Indian market concluded the trading session today in a delicate equilibrium, anchored firmly by domestic buying strength even as the Nifty Index surrendered marginal ground.
The headline indices, Nifty and Sensex, posted fractional losses, with the Nifty falling 0.08 percent to 26027 and the Sensex declining 0.06 percent to 85213. This marginal dip masked a crucial internal struggle, rooted in institutional flow. The trading day was ultimately defined by narrow consolidation, successfully maintaining the Nifty just above the crucial psychological 26000 level.
The internal market movement pointed to a sharp rotation of capital today. The star performer was the core financial complex, with the Nifty Bank Index demonstrating remarkable resilience by closing substantially higher at 26046, a gain of 0.57 percent. This strength in heavyweights prevented a major headline fall. Beyond financials, the Metals sector also saw substantial thematic buying. Conversely, the marginal decline in the Nifty 50, despite robust banking gains, suggests continued pressure points in other globally sensitive, high-weight sectors, likely Information Technology. This retreat aligns with lingering investor anxiety related to technology valuations following weak performance overseas.
The most compelling stock narrative belonged to Tata Steel, which registered a powerful gain of 3.32 percent. This surge was directly tied to an external macroeconomic catalyst: China, the world's largest consumer of steel, pledged a substantial fiscal boost for 2026. This signal of forthcoming stimulus significantly elevated the future global demand outlook for the entire commodity complex, providing a potent and clear reason for domestic steel producers to rally. This move confirms that institutional capital is rotating into reflation trades that benefit from infrastructure and global demand cues.
The Nifty closed today at 26027, positioning itself tightly just above its classic pivot point of 26014. Crucially, the index reclaimed the 20-day Exponential Moving Average and maintained stability above the 26000 mark. However, the broader technical structure still indicates persistent supply, characterized by the Nifty forming lower highs. For a renewed medium-term bullish phase to be confirmed, a sustained closing price above the major resistance cluster of 26200 is mandatory. On the downside, the key defense zone, strongly underpinned by derivative activity, remains clustered between 26000 and 25900.
On the global front, US Futures offer a highly constructive cue for today's opening, with the Nasdaq 100 Futures trading in the green, up approximately 0.51 percent. European markets were mixed: the DAX was up 0.34 percent, but the FTSE 100 was trading marginally lower. In the crypto space, Bitcoin, alongside other digital assets, displayed clear strength, rising 1.87 percent.
The market stands perfectly balanced, exhibiting a dynamic where domestic liquidity is currently strong enough to dictate market stability and thematic rotation, overriding moderate foreign selling. However, the path forward remains dependent on breaking 26,200, confirming whether India can graduate from a range-bound structure into a fresh, decisive uptrend.

The AI crash in the US is finally hitting home: the projected 80-point gap down for the Nifty this morning forces traders to decide instantly whether domestic DII strength can overcome the most significant tech liquidation we have seen in weeks

Good morning, I'm Prem, and this is News That Move Markets, your sharp, three-minute blast of actionable intelligence to dominate the Monday trading session.

The global handover is dominated by a major risk-off event, stemming almost entirely from the US technology sector. On Friday, the S&P 500 plunged 1.1% to 6827.41, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped a significant 1.7% to 23195, recording its worst day in three weeks. This pain was concentrated in the AI infrastructure trade, where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, our proxy for the chip supply chain, plummeted a massive 5.1%. This wipeout was triggered by corporate anxiety around colossal CapEx plans, specifically from Oracle, coupled with concerns about data center delays.

Asian markets this morning are showing weakness, reacting directly to Wall Street's tech fear. The Nikkei 225 is currently down 1.2% at 50226 points, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting this week. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index is trading lower at 25734, representing a 242-point drop, reversing some of the previous session’s momentum.

Crucially, the Gift Nifty is signaling a significant gap down at the open. Compared to Friday’s closing figure of 26137, the current price hovering around 26050 indicates an approximate 80-point negative start for the domestic market. This confirms that the severe US tech shock is translating directly into opening weakness here.

However, remember the structural firewall underpinning our market: Domestic Institutional Investors, or DIIs. On Friday, FIIs sold assets worth ₹1114 Crores, but DIIs countered this aggressively, logging a formidable net buy figure of ₹3868 Crores into the cash market. This 3.5-times absorption rate ensures a powerful structural floor beneath any initial technical selling pressure.

The mandate for India Inc. is shifting rapidly. Geopolitical instability remains the single biggest future risk for nearly 50% of Indian CXOs. This fear is met by a powerful opportunity: new intelligence reveals an untapped export potential exceeding $35 billion in the Russian market alone, primarily in Pharmaceuticals and Engineering goods. This macro news provides a clear, fundamental counter-trade to the tech panic.

For traders, the action is defined by rotation. You must keep technology on a technical short or hedge radar immediately at the open, given the massive 5.1% Semiconductor Index collapse and its direct correlation to contracting US client sentiment. Conversely, look to accumulate strong domestic financials. HDFC Bank’s US ADR closed positively at +0.75%, and ICICI Bank also showed resilience, closing up +0.13%. This positive bias confirms global confidence in Indian banks as defensive, domestic growth plays.

In commodity space, Brent crude is holding steady at a comfortable low level of $61.38 per barrel, easing fiscal and inflationary stress. This stable energy environment minimizes risk for the broader economy. Bitcoin is showing strength in the $88025 to $90496 range, confirming that capital is rotating within the global risk complex, rather than exiting it entirely.

Today requires highly selective trading: short or hedge the IT sector as a tactical move, but deploy that capital immediately into the structural strength of domestic banking, engineering, and pharmaceutical exporters. The Nifty must hold the crucial psychological support near 26050. If DII conviction holds this line, infrastructure and banking stocks will lead the bounce back. Trade with conviction, this Prem signing off.

The provided text is an excerpt from a Weekly Market Master Brief targeting sophisticated Indian traders and investors, covering the period of 8–12 December 2025. This brief details the week's financial performance, noting that the Nifty 50 surrendered the 26,000 mark due to initial "Fed Jitters" and an operational crisis at IndiGo, though a Relief Rally occurred after the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate cut. Crucially, the document highlights a "Money War" where Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought approximately ₹14,000 Crores, successfully absorbing significant foreign selling, which prevented a market crash. The report also summarises key Global Cues, such as the Dovish Fed commentary, cooling US bond yields, and crashing Brent Crude prices, which offered a macro tailwind for India. Finally, it outlines the Outlook for the Week Ahead, suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish trend with the market likely consolidating between 25,800 and 26,200.

Indian benchmarks delivered a strong session, closing decisively above the psychological 26,000 mark, reinforcing the narrative that India’s domestic structural resilience is successfully neutralizing foreign capital outflows.

The Nifty 50 advanced 0.57% to settle near 26,047, while the BSE Sensex closed 0.53% higher. This rally was an extension of the recovery sparked by the US Federal Reserve's rate cut, but the real story lies in the structural shift underpinning this move. Despite Foreign Institutional Investors offloading over 2,000 crore rupees worth of equities in the prior session, Domestic Institutional Investors provided a massive counter-force, buying shares worth nearly 3,800 crore rupees. This institutional divergence, supported by relentless mutual fund SIP inflows, has created a robust liquidity floor that is insulating the market from foreign sentiment, allowing the domestic growth story to shine.

The session was defined by a classic rotation of funds, favoring domestically oriented cyclical industries. The Metals, Real Estate, and Oil and Gas sectors led the market higher. Specifically, the Nifty Metal Index was the outstanding performer, confirming investor conviction in India's capital expenditure theme. On the flip side, we saw some mild defensive rotation, with the Nifty IT Index registering a marginal decline. This underperformance reflects cautious capital movement out of export-oriented IT stocks and into high-beta, infrastructure-linked names.

The stock of the day belonged to Tata Steel, which surged over 3.3 percent to become a top Nifty 50 gainer. This jump was fundamentally driven by the company’s decisive strategic blueprint for aggressive domestic capacity expansion. The board approved plans to add significant steel capacity in India by FY32 and sanctioned the acquisition of a 50 percent stake in Thriveni Pellets for 636 crore rupees. This proactive move is highly margin-accretive, ensuring feedstock security and signaling that the corporate sector is actively executing growth plans aligned with the national manufacturing thrust.

Looking ahead, the Nifty’s strong close above 26,000 places it firmly above its critical Classic Pivot point of 25,978. Moving averages across all major timeframes signal a "Strong Buy" outlook, suggesting bulls are in control. For the coming session, the immediate floor rests at 26,017, which must be defended to maintain momentum. The next major test lies at the Resistance 2 level of 26,076. A break above this level is crucial, as it could force the unwinding of heavy Call positions concentrated near the 26,000 strike, potentially confirming a broader breakout from consolidation. Conversely, a failure to hold would see the index test immediate support at 25,920.

Globally, European markets were trading in constructive positive territory, with the DAX up over half a percent. However, US futures presented a mixed picture, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures showing slight declines. This continues to reflect a rotation out of expensive AI-linked technology stocks in the US following disappointing forecasts from companies like Oracle. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maintained its position, trading up near 92.5 thousand dollars, holding steady as global policy clarity settles in.

The structural resilience demonstrated today, coupled with the India VIX dropping sharply to a new one-month low of 10.07, indicates high institutional confidence and conviction in India's domestic growth trajectory. While traders should remain mindful of residual FII selling and weakness in global tech cues, the bias remains firmly with the domestic bulls, ready to defend the 26,000 base. The market has effectively shown that local muscle now outweighs foreign volatility.

The baton handover from the US was decidedly bullish, albeit selective. The US Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive interest rate cut, lowering the key funds rate to a range of three-point-five to three-point-seven-five percent. Crucially, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided distinctly dovish commentary, effectively ruling out any imminent rate hikes. This commitment to lower rates structurally favors risk assets globally, including Indian equities, by lowering the US ten-year Treasury yield to approximately four-point-one percent. The US Dollar Index also slipped, hitting its lowest level since October.

This dovish signal drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P five hundred to new closing records, surging one-point-three percent and zero-point-two percent respectively, showing a clear rotation into non-technology blue-chip companies. However, the Nasdaq Composite lagged, dropping zero-point-three percent. This split was triggered by Oracle, which plummeted nearly eleven percent after reporting higher capital spending but softer revenue than expected. This is critical: institutional money is demanding execution and efficiency, not just AI narrative, a trend that warrants scrutiny for our own IT pack.

Our market resilience remains anchored by Domestic Institutional Investors. On Thursday, FIIs booked profits, registering net selling two thousand Crore rupees. But DIIs aggressively stepped in, injecting a massive three thousand seven hundred Crore rupees. This continuous, structurally sticky DII inflow acts as the primary stabilizing force, absorbing foreign selling pressure and providing a strong technical floor for the Nifty.

Listen closely for actionable intelligence on two key sectors.

First, the Metal and Mining space needs your attention. Hindustan Zinc is a direct beneficiary of the unprecedented silver rally. Global spot silver has surged recently, crossing sixty three US dollars an ounce. The primary driver is silver's reclassification as a US critical mineral, elevating it to a strategic industrial commodity essential for solar and electronics. This structural re-rating fuelled strong buying in Hindustan Zinc, one of the world's largest integrated silver producers, whose shares jumped nearly five percent. This theme suggests long-term demand growth for select producers.

Second, Automobile and related exports face an immediate, sharp headwind. Mexico, a major export destination for India's manufactured goods and vehicles, has approved significant tariff hikes of up to fifty percent on certain Indian imports. This move directly impacts major Indian car exporters, dealing a serious blow to up to one billion dollars worth of shipments. Automobile export companies that rely heavily on Mexico, our third-largest car export market, must now re-evaluate strategies immediately.

On commodities, crude oil prices are still weakening, despite geopolitical noise, which is a big macro positive for India. WTI Crude is trading around fifty-seven point nine-six dollars per barrel, near multi-week lows, primarily due to global surplus expectations. This structural weakness is a massive tailwind for India's current account deficit and helps mitigate imported inflation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, a proxy for global risk appetite, climbed toward ninety-four thousand dollars following the Fed cut, although it later handed back some gains. Standard Chartered still maintains a bullish outlook, projecting Bitcoin could reach one hundred thousand dollars by the year end.

Final thought for today: Leverage the domestic dominance. The market is enjoying a dual tailwind—global liquidity expansion and favorable crude prices. Use the expected Gift Nifty gap-up to focus on domestic cyclicals and financials, sectors positively anchored by the strong HDFC Bank ADR close. But hedge against the tactical risk presented by the Mexico tariff bombshell. Identify exporters facing those fifty percent duties and approach them with caution.