This week, tensions between Iran and the U.S. continued to rise despite ongoing negotiations, with Iran threatening repercussions if the U.S. were to attack and Israel threatening Lebanon with strikes against civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah acted in defense of Iran. In the Indo-Pacific, China restricted rare earth exports to Japan, and U.S. aerospace manufacturers warned of dwindling rare earth supplies, despite last year’s trade truce. The U.S. imposed a global 10% tariff following last week’s decision by the Supreme Court that invalidated IEEPA tariffs, and the Cuban Coast Guard killed four passengers of a U.S.-flagged speedboat that entered Cuban waters. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism in upcoming trilateral negotiations with Russia and the U.S., while the U.S. held talks with Ukraine on post-conflict reconstruction.

This week, the U.S. continued its buildup of naval and air forces near Iran for a potential military operation, while Iranian officials reported progress in diplomatic talks. In the United States, the Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, dealing a major blow to the administration’s trade policy. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the latest round of peace negotiations ended with inconclusive results, while world leaders gathered in Germany for the Munich Security Conference. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. unveiled plans to deploy more missile systems to the Philippines, while China prepared to receive German Chancellor Friederich Merz. As the U.S. pressure campaign against Cuba continued, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Cuban government representatives. Meanwhile, U.S. forces intercepted another Venezuelan-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lipschitz sat down with Stefano Ritondale again, to discuss the dynamics of the Sinaloa cartel civil war and emerging alliances between Los Chapitos, a faction of the Sinaloa cartel, and CJNG, Sinaloa’s historic rival. Stefano breaks down how the Sinaloa civil war has reframed how we should understand Mexican cartel alliances. We examine some of the ways CJNG is providing support to Los Chapitos in their fights against the Mayitos, what this alliance means for other Mexican cartels, and how policymakers should go about understanding this complex landscape. Stay tuned for more from Crime Beat Conversations.

Find Stefano’s piece on cartel militarization for New Lines Institute here:

https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/stefano-ritondale/

Learn more about Artorias: https://www.artorias.com/

For more from Stefano, follow on X (https://x.com/All_Source_News) and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/stefano-ritondale-1046b5345/)

A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/

For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)

Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

Follow our socials for news on upcoming events, analysis, infographics, and more! https://linktr.ee/NewLinesInstitute

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, after which Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran would continue, while Israel is reportedly preparing for a ground offensive in Gaza against Hamas.

In the Indo Pacific, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering constitutional reform following her party’s victory in parliament, while the U.S. is preparing a new arms sale to Taiwan.

In the Americas, Cuba has warned airline companies that they would no longer be able to refuel on the island amid the country’s energy crisis following an oil embargo by the United States.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accepted a U.S. invitation to participate in peace talks in Miami next week, while the European Union is preparing a list of concessions it will demand from Russia.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the U.S. and Iran held talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear program amid rising tensions following U.S. forces shooting down an Iranian reconnaissance drone in the Arabian Sea. In the U.S., the federal government reopened after a partial shutdown following commitments by the Trump administration to reduce the number of federal law enforcement officers in Minnesota. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. hailed a trade agreement with India following New Delhi’s reported commitment to halt Russian oil purchases, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted foreign leaders for a new trading block for critical minerals. Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. held trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi while Russia resumed strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure following a one-week stop in those bombings.

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/