『My Worst Investment Ever Podcast』のカバーアート

My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

著者： Andrew Stotz
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概要
 Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it. Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth. To find more stories like this, previous episodes, and resources to help you reduce your risk, visit https://myworstinvestmentever.com/Copyright 2026 Andrew Stotz マネジメント マネジメント・リーダーシップ 個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • Whitney Tilson – 25 Years on Wall Street Taught Him About Letting Winners Run

    Whitney Tilson – 25 Years on Wall Street Taught Him About Letting Winners Run
    2026/11/09
    BIO: Whitney Tilson is Editor of Stansberry Research, which provides advice, commentary, and in-depth research and analysis to help people become better investors. The business has more than 100,000 paid subscribers.STORY: Whitney lost approximately 500% on a Tesla short position. But he considers selling Netflix too early an even bigger mistake. Although he made roughly seven times his money, he missed much of the extraordinary growth that followed.LEARNING: The hardest skill in long-term investing isn't finding the next great company. It's having the discipline to keep holding the one you already found, long after the easy, comfortable gains have already been banked. "The only thing I had to do was hold the two big winners. I got stupid and didn't let my winners run."Whitney Tilson Guest profileWhitney Tilson is Editor of Stansberry Research, which provides advice, commentary, and in-depth research and analysis to help people become better investors. The business has more than 100,000 paid subscribers.Whitney founded and ran a number of hedge funds for nearly two decades, and he ran for mayor of NYC.Sign up for his free Investing Daily at Whitney Tilson's Daily, where he gives financial advice to average Americans to help them make profitable long-term investment decisions and avoid the endless scams and promotions in the market.Worst investment everWhitney's worst investment wasn't really about which stock he picked. In 2013, Whitney was short Tesla. He had seen another ambitious electric-vehicle venture, Better Place, fail and believed Tesla faced serious financial and execution risks. Tesla, however, was just days from running out of cash before it launched the Model S, and the launch succeeded. Whitney says he was too slow to recognize that the business had changed.The stock tore against Whitney's short for more than a year. What began as a position representing roughly 1%–1.5% of his portfolio generated a loss of approximately 500% on the short position—not on his entire portfolio.The phone call that ended the Tesla shortWhat finally got him out wasn't a chart. It was a phone call. His cousin, a Stanford engineer, put him in touch with two of Tesla's top battery and automotive engineers, who told him the company was roughly six years ahead of every other automaker on everything related to electric vehicles. Whitney covered his short that day, at a steep loss, and admits he should have flipped around and gone long instead.Netflix: from short seller to believerA couple of years before the Tesla short, he had also been short Netflix and gotten badly burned, so badly that he published a public 18-page essay explaining why he was short the stock.Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, whom Whitney knew from serving together on charter-school boards, published a friendly rebuttal days later and invited Whitney out to California to talk it through in person. Whitney left that meeting and immediately covered his Netflix short.A year and a half later, Netflix's stock had collapsed by 75% to a $3 billion market cap, exactly as his original short thesis had predicted. Rather than re-shorting, Whitney now respected Hastings and the business.In October 2012, he went long instead, publicly comparing Netflix to Amazon a decade earlier: same customer growth, same revenue trajectory, but a company that was actually profitable and debt-free. He predicted Netflix could be "this decade's Amazon," a 20-bagger in the making.Right call, wrong nerve: selling a hundred-bagger at seven timesWhitney was dramatically underestimating his own prediction. Split-adjusted, Netflix went from roughly $8 to $800 a share over the following eight years, a hundredfold return. Whitney didn't stay for the ride.After the stock doubled, he sold half. After it doubled again, he sold half of what remained, and exited not long after. He walked away with about seven times his money, which sounds like a win until you consider what patience alone would have delivered. "I left a 12-bagger on the table," he says of the gains still to come in Netflix's next five years alone.Lessons learnedOnly buy something or make an investment decision when it's blindingly obvious and screaming at you.Index funds beat almost all active money managers because they let their winners run.Build the core of your portfolio around low-cost index funds,Understand the downside before entering a position. A short sale can lose multiples of the initial position's value, making it fundamentally different from an ordinary unleveraged stock purchase.Andrew's takeawaysWhen something is really exciting and enticing, bet a little on it and track it as you do your research.Actionable adviceNever short or buy a put. Keep a long-term horizon and don't wildly over-diversify; make as few trades as possible.Whitney's recommendationsWhitney recommends his book, The Art of Playing Defense: How to Get Ahead by Not Falling Behind, built around avoiding the handful of calamities, financial,...
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    50 分
  • Giuseppe Grammatico - How to Choose the Right Franchise Without Buying Yourself a Job

    Giuseppe Grammatico - How to Choose the Right Franchise Without Buying Yourself a Job
    2026/10/19
    BIO: Giuseppe Grammatico is the founder of GG The Franchise Guide, where he advises corporate professionals, executives in transition, and military veterans on evaluating and entering franchise ownership as a structured path to business ownership and income diversification.STORY: Giuseppe explains how he reclaimed his marketing voice and shares a practical framework for evaluating franchises: understand the work, investigate beyond the excitement, and prepare for what can go wrong.LEARNING: A franchise is not a job, and it is not your passion project. Start with the life you want, then evaluate the business model, financial requirements, and risks. "A franchise is still a business. The system is handed to you. If you don't follow that system, you're going to struggle."Giuseppe Grammatico Giuseppe Grammatico is the founder of GG The Franchise Guide, where he advises corporate professionals, executives in transition, and military veterans on how to evaluate and enter franchise ownership as a structured path to business ownership and income diversification.Giuseppe joins the podcast for the second time. In his first appearance, episode 762, he described outsourcing his content marketing to an agency that quietly buried his own voice. This time round, he discusses what prospective franchise owners should understand before committing their savings, time, and family’s future to a business.A franchise gives you a system, not a guaranteeGiuseppe likens a franchise to a high-performance car. The engine, design, and operational systems may be in place; however, the car will not get anywhere without a driver. This analogy challenges the common perception that buying a known model means instant success.Giuseppe emphasizes that a franchise remains an operating business with systems owners must follow, performance they must manage, and meaningful attention they must give it. If they don't, then the business will struggle.When choosing a franchise, start with your ideal roleWhen advising an individual on what franchise to buy, Giuseppe starts by finding out what the buyer expects from the business. Having a favored brand might keep buyers from seeing obvious mismatches with what they need. They might end up hiring more employees than they expected, working extra days and even outside office hours, and making a bigger investment than their budget allows. All of those are deviations from the intended objectives.Giuseppe warns against treating a franchise as an occasional side project, with an hour of attention here and there, because it is not a sound ownership strategy.Understand the work before you buyGiuseppe says that loving an industry is not reason enough to buy a franchise. Loving a fitness studio's workouts, for example, tells you little about whether you want to handle recruitment, staffing, customer retention, and operating performance as a gym owner. Giuseppe notes that prior industry experience is not always required. What matters is understanding the actual ownership role and the support the franchise provides.Investigate more when you feel most excitedGiuseppe describes how buyers can gradually abandon their requirements once they become attached to a brand. A person who wanted a small team suddenly accepts a large staff. Someone who wanted predictable hours agrees to weekends. The opportunity begins to dictate the goals instead of serving them. All this comes from the excitement of becoming a franchise owner.He insists on spending enough time doing due diligence so that you can thoroughly vet thefranchise before you commit. This ensures you make decisions from knowledge, not emotion.Giuseppe asks potential owners to slow down, speak with several franchisees, document special arrangements, and have a franchise attorney review the relevant documents.Passion can be the destination, not the businessFrom Giuseppe's experience, one can learn that passion does not automatically translate into a good franchise choice. Because he was passionate about soccer in his younger days, he considered investing in a soccer-related franchise. However, the franchise operated on a retail model, which was quite different from playing or watching the sport he loved.His advice is to choose the business that supports the life you want. Figure out what the ideal business looks like from the standpoint of your skill sets.What are you doing day to day?How much staff do you truly want to manage?Do you want a huge brick-and-mortar, or do you want to run your business from home or maybe a small office?In short, a business doesn't need to be your passion if it reliably funds the life you actually want.Plan for what can go wrong (something always does)A business that looks attractive under ideal conditions may become difficult to sustain when opening takes longer, costs rise, or revenue develops slowly. Giuseppe encourages buyers to examine those possibilities before committing. He adds that you have to have the end in mind. This could...
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    34 分
  • Wrap-up. Complete These Steps Before Putting Any Money on the Line

    Wrap-up. Complete These Steps Before Putting Any Money on the Line
    2026/10/15

    Theory fades fast under pressure; if you evaluate your next deal without a physical tool in front of you, old emotional habits will instantly take over.

    In this lesson, twice-voted #1 financial analyst Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA, puts you directly inside a real-world, high-stakes real estate flip gone wrong to test how the 5-step framework protects you in real time.

    Reducing risk isn't about finding a magic trick to be right 100% of the time—it's about bridging the gap between passive listening and active, disciplined deal execution using a permanent checklist.

    Why You Need to Listen to This Lesson NOW

    • The Real Estate Flip Disaster: Walk through a true story where a lack of independent checks, hidden balloon payments, and misplaced trust turned a simple project into an 8-year financial drain.
    • Test Your Decision-Making: Practice applying all five steps to a live deal scenario before hearing what went wrong, training your mind to spot hidden traps.
    • From Theory to Execution: Learn why knowing the rules is useless unless you actively run them through a structured process before money moves.
    • Arm Your Future: Complete the course by anchoring your strategy into a permanent, 1-page physical tool designed to make your next investment your smartest one yet.

    Key Takeaway

    "The process you have learned is only useful if you actually use it before the money moves."

    — Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA

    Episode Mentioned:

    • Ep593: John Lawson – Turn Your Pain Into Motivation to Make a Change

    P.S. Download Your Free 1-Page Risk Checklist

    Don't evaluate your next deal on memory alone. Click the link below to download the 1-Page Risk Checklist. Print it out, keep it on your desk, and run all 5 steps before putting any money on the line!

    [DOWNLOAD THE 1-PAGE RISK CHECKLIST HERE]
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    12 分
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