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Bad beats come in Poker and in the Markets, but it is only about the MATH and the probabilities RULE over time.

Markets have taken a bad beat from the constant all-in bluff shoves from DJT...but the end is near, Trump has folded after Iran and Oman sort out a deal on the Strait of Hormuz that does NOT involve the US, and thus the FOCUS of the markets will RETURN to the macro-data, which offers much more clarity, than has this debacle of a "war".

Yes, the focus is back to playing the high probability outcomes, and Friday's Labor market data changes the game. I have been saying since LAST YEAR that the Labor market was HOLLOWING OUT, DEFLATING from within, and it would FORCE the Fed to choose between fighting still rising inflation or protecting consumer final demand growth. Bessent gave us the best clue as to what the choice will be when, out of FEAR about a Bond market crisis, he chose to use US taxpayer money to bail out the Japanese Yen.

As I have also said since last year, STAGFLATION is the REAL force in the economy and would force the Fed to acquiesce to higher inflation rates, to save the consumer, so that we can continue to finance our $40 trillion in Public Debt without generating a debt deflation event.

As such the USDX is increasingly at risk...and Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium and the Chinese Renminbi are in the process of breaking out and resuming their long-term SECULAR BULL MARKETS, with new record highs in sight over the next 12-24 months.

Get my SPECIFIC recommendations as per the positions to start accumulating now, in today's episode of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing.”

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The talking heads in the pop-media covering both the financial markets and political scene are CELEBRATING an (alleged) victory in the Iran War with the signing of the MOU and talking about Gasoline prices collapsing back to $2 a gallon.

Politicians and market pundits are suggesting that the upside acceleration in Gasoline prices is DEAD…thus, the upside acceleration in US CPI/PCE/PPI inflation is also… DEAD.

Yes, on social media and in the pop-financial and political rah-rah TV…the song rings out…Ding Dong the Witch is Dead!

The Witch…being Iran’s sponsored terror…Iran’s nuclear program…and, thus…US inflation…ALL DEAD, right?

Yeah, not so fast! The Strait is NOT free-and-clear, Iran just got 60 days to prolong the Uranium supply negotiations, the agreement states that the MOU could be extended INDEFINITLEY…and…the terms have already been VIOLATED.

And EVEN if the War is OVER, and the Strait OPENED, the fundamental supply-demand situation in both Crude Oil and Gasoline REMAINS BULLISH…and is most likely to STAY that way through the summer and into the November US election period.

Thus, as I stated previously, a decline in prices down to $65-$75 in WTI Crude Oil…and the $2.40-$2.60 level in Gasoline, would be viewed as a BUYING opportunity, particularly with LOW Open Interest in both contracts, removing the threat of a prolonged and deep price decline predicted by a massive liquidation of long positions.

Moreover, the US PPI data offered EYE-POPPING levels of pipeline inflation in most sectors, particularly, again, SERVICES. This just days after the CPI data revealed ANOTHER upside acceleration in…Service CPI inflation!

You NEED to HEAR these numbers! The Inflation Witch is not only NOT DEAD…she is STRONGER THAN EVER!

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In today's podcast, Greg tackles the GLOBE, from Europe to the US to Asia, to show how stagflation is intensifying amid a further tightening in global monetary conditions, and an appreciation in the US Dollar, as Central Banks are lining up to hike official short-term interest rates, and credit conditions are becoming dangerously "tight". Against this backdrop sustained high US price inflation in services, and a fractured labor market has pushed Consumer Confidence to new all-time lows, while Retail Sales growth is dominated by rising Sales (AKA prices) at Gasoline Stations, while spending at Eating and Drinking Establishments and Vehicle Sales are DISINFLATING at an alarming pace.

Yes, CAPEX spending on AI data center build-outs is skyrocketing and output of Semiconductors-Computer Peripheral Equipment SOARS, the FACT is that these three things account for only 16% of GDP, while Consumer Spending and the Service sector still accounts for 71% of GDP. The disconnect between Consumer final demand disinflation, and new all-time high in US stock indexes has NEVER been greater. Moreover, the current long-term momentum driving the US stock market higher is as stretched and extended as it has EVER BEEN. Throw in the fact that Gold is now breaking down versus nearly every paper currency on the planet...

...and the stage is all but set for an all-out "asset price deflation event"!

This IS..."The Great Divide; the Stock Market vs the Economy”

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