Sonia sits down with Julie Fredrickson (managing partner at Chaotic Capital) to dissect the Advent calendar wars—and what Amazon's massive, perfectly-packaged K-beauty box says about the future of retail, beauty merchandising, and who's winning the tastemaker race.

We're talking about:

• Why Amazon shipped a $99 Advent calendar in custom foam inserts (and what that signals about their beauty ambitions)

• The end of de minimis tax and how it's reshaping K-beauty imports, counterfeits, and brand trust

• Sephora's loyalty program collapse: why 500-point rewards vanished and millennials are jumping ship

• Costco's rotating J-beauty drops, Trader Joe's SKU ruthlessness, and the rise of "box season"

• Amazon vs. Sephora vs. Saks Fifth Avenue: who's nailing the unboxing experience (and who's phoning it in)

• How Amazon's using logistics mastery to court American beauty brands—and whether they'll share customer data

• The millennial beauty gap: why there's no one merchandising to women in their 30s and 40s

• Gen Z's plastic surgery trend, buccal fat removal regrets, and whether "aggressively natural" is the next aesthetic shift

Plus: Why full-size beats samples, how TikTok unboxings are the new product review, and what gourmand fragrances have to do with Ozempic.

guest: Julie Fredrickson – Managing Partner at Chaotic Capital, retail expert, beauty substack writer (@almost_media on Twitter/X, nicepackaging.substack.com)

guest perspective: Julie brings deep retail and merchandising expertise—breaks down SKU strategy, 3PL logistics, counterfeit challenges, and why Amazon hiring Christine Beauchamp (former Ann Taylor) signals they're serious about taste. She's skeptical of Sephora's down-market shift and bullish on craft packaging as brand positioning.

marketing takeaways:

1. Packaging = brand promise (Amazon's custom inserts telegraphed \"we're luxury-ready\")

2. Curation beats assortment (12 full-size K-beauty products is better than 24 Sephora samples)

3. Loyalty programs die when you pull rewards from top spenders (Sephora's 500-point disaster)

4. Use operations as marketing (Amazon's 3PL pitch to beauty brands = trust signal)

5. Sampling tiers matter: trial vs mini vs full-size creates different conversion paths

6. TikTok unboxings are your real product reviews—design for that moment

7. Tastemaker positioning requires constant curation (Sephora lost it, Amazon's claiming it)

Sonia Baschez sits down with Hailey Allen (creative strategist at neuemotion) to dissect the marketing wins and fails making waves right now—from AI slop ruining brand perception to why companies are suddenly hiring "chief storytellers."

We're talking about:

• Why McDonald's pulled their AI ad in 24 hours (and why Disney chose the worst week to announce their OpenAI deal)

• "Slop" being named word of the year and what that says about 2025

• Substack launching sponsorships after years of being ad-free—is the dream over?

• Pinterest Predicts 2026 vs. Pantone's boring white color choice

• The viral WSJ article about chief storytellers and why AI can't replace human narrative

• A24's fake engagement announcement and Spielberg's cryptic Times Square billboard

• Kim Kardashian x Fortnite: actually genius or completely unhinged?

Plus: actionable takeaways for marketers trying to cut through the noise.

1. 00:40 – McDonald's AI Ad Disaster & Disney-OpenAI Partnership

2. 03:46 – 2025 Words of the Year (Slop, Rage Bait, Parasocial)

3. 05:12 – J.Crew Pop-Up & the Rise of Experiential Marketing

4. 07:38 – Substack Launches Ads: The End of Ad-Free Newsletters?

5. 19:22 – 2026 Trend Reports: Pinterest Predicts vs. Pantone's Flop

6. 24:30 – Chief Storytellers: Why Companies Are Hiring for "Vibes"

7. 36:30 – Movie Marketing Masterclass: A24's Fake Engagement & Spielberg's Mystery Billboard

8. 41:51 – Kim Kardashian x Fortnite: Genius or Chaos?

9. 49:55 – Marketing Takeaways Recap

This episode hits on five major marketing trends playing out rn. starts with F1's american takeover—Cadillac's super bowl livery reveal is perfectly timed with Apple's new broadcast deal to capture US audiences who've been waiting for a team that actually leans into being american. they also break down the wholesome carlos sainz unicorn helmet story that shows how user-generated content and ongoing storylines can build real fan engagement when you're not just extracting value from your audience.

The spotify wrapped vs granola crunched comparison is the meat of it—spotify's getting 500M shares but losing trust bc people think the data's cooked and taylor swift's juicing the numbers. granola launched a privacy-first year-end review that actually felt accurate and personal, proving that substance beats viral metrics for long-term brand equity. they tie this into nvidia hiring a merch director and palantir's cult following, arguing that founder personality + quality merch = walking billboards that signal community membership (the "if you know you know" factor).

Closes on rage bait marketing being a dead-end strategy despite easy engagement. paul graham called it scammer shit, and they show how companies like clueless and friend ai burned goodwill chasing attention instead of building product. the counterpoint: wholesome marketing, craft, and participatory events (percy jackson's fountain billboard, stripe's mini-city) are winning bc people are exhausted from doom scrolling. big thesis: attention economy thinking misses that not all attention is equal—optimize for trust and positive emotion, not just impressions.

• F1 Marketing Moves (00:01 - 09:14): Cadillac F1's Super Bowl livery reveal strategy, Apple TV's F1 deal, and Carlos Sainz's wholesome unicorn helmet story

• Spotify Wrapped vs Granola Crunch (14:04 - 26:37): Why Spotify's losing trust while Granola nails year-end reviews

• Merch as Marketing Strategy (29:24 - 43:00): Nvidia hiring a merch director, Palantir's cult following, and why founder personality matters

• Out of Home Evolution (44:16 - 52:30): Percy Jackson's fountain billboard and creating participatory marketing events

• The Rage Bait Problem (55:25 - 1:22:48): Paul Graham weighs in, why companies like Clueless are burning goodwill for engagement