The materials and chemicals M&A market is sending a clear signal in 2025: conviction beats volume. Drawing on data from Roland Berger, KPMG, Proventis, R.L. Hulett, NYU Stern, and McKinsey, this episode of HoldCo unpacks the valuation dynamics, deal-count trends, and buyer psychology shaping one of the more nuanced corners of the M&A landscape right now. The full analysis is sourced from this in-depth materials and chemicals M&A research piece.

Here's what the episode covers:

• The six-turn gap: Specialty chemicals and advanced materials deals cleared at a median of 15.7× EBITDA in H1 2025 — a striking premium over the 9.4× public trading multiple — reflecting the compounded value of control, scarcity, and true strategic fit.
• Volume vs. value divergence: Global chemicals deal counts have fallen steadily from 835 transactions in 2021 to 563 in 2024, yet disclosed deal value rose 78% year-over-year in H1 2025, as a small number of large, strategic transactions do the heavy lifting.
• The megadeal is back — selectively: The ADNOC/OMV consolidation of Borouge, Borealis, and Nova Chemicals (cited at ~$13.4B enterprise value, ~$500M annual synergy target) illustrates the feedstock-plus-footprint logic that justifies platform-scale transactions when a buyer holds a genuine structural edge.
• The structural multiple spread: Basic chemicals trade near 8.6× EV/EBITDA while specialty chemicals fetch 13.4×; public comps from Linde (18.5×) and Ecolab (24×+) versus BASF (9.5×) and Dow (12×) show how sub-sector positioning — not just sector membership — determines valuation.
• Strategic vs. sponsor dynamics: Private equity pulled back to a median of 12.3× in 2025 (from 13.8× in 2024), while strategics re-engaged and paid more — 10.3× versus 8.2× the prior year — reflecting renewed willingness to compete hard when a genuinely on-strategy asset surfaces.
• Carve-outs as PE's natural habitat: With large chemicals groups still pruning non-core positions, carve-out complexity — stranded overhead, TSAs, shared infrastructure — is creating acquisition discounts that operationally capable sponsors are positioned to capture.

The throughline across all the data is straightforward: the "buy it because capital is cheap" era is over. Buyers who are winning in 2025 have a specific, defensible reason to own every asset they pursue — and a clear value-creation thesis ready before the deal closes. For more on how deal size and strategic focus interact, listen to Why Bigger Isn't Always Better in Acquisitions.

MergersAndAcquisitions.net

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