Jim Bianco says there's one risk that could send stocks down 15 to 20%—and almost nobody is pricing it in.

In this episode, Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino sit down with Jim Bianco, President and CEO of Bianco Research, to break down what markets are ignoring right now. Bianco lays out why the Strait of Hormuz staying closed longer than expected is the real tail risk nobody's talking about, and why tech keeps hitting all-time highs despite the macro uncertainty around it.

They get into why software stocks are getting crushed by agentic AI while semiconductors rip higher, which AI tools are actually worth paying for, what's driving bond yields and inflation expectations, the case for gold and the dollar debasement trade, and why private credit's exposure to software companies could be the next place real stress shows up.

If you want to understand what could actually move markets 20% from here, this is the conversation.

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and Guest Overview
03:07 Will the Market Work Itself Out This Time
04:57 The Strait of Hormuz and What It Means for Oil
07:25 What Would Make Stocks Drop 15-20%
10:45 Big Tech as a Global Safe Haven Trade
12:20 Why Software Stocks Are Getting Crushed by AI
14:29 Agentic AI: Beyond Google Search on Steroids
16:36 Which AI Tool Should You Actually Pay For
22:42 Bond Market: Inflation, Nominal Growth and Rates
26:19 Can the US Become the Supplier of Last Resort
31:33 The Debasement Trade: Gold, Bitcoin and the Dollar
36:08 How Does One Go Bankrupt? Slowly, Then All at Once
37:29 Government Stakes in Airlines: Socialism or Smart
43:03 The Intel Example and Why Government Ownership Fails
46:07 What Caused the Software Selloff Before the War
48:31 Data Centers: Why You Can't Get Rid of Them
50:01 Nuclear Power and the AI Energy Problem
51:25 Self-Driving Cars and the Insurance Thesis
56:27 Private Credit's Massive Software Problem
59:51 Is Private Credit a Systemic Risk

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