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  • Macro & Volatility™ #34: The Market is Impatient, but Time is on Our Side with AI

    Macro & Volatility™ #34: The Market is Impatient, but Time is on Our Side with AI
    2026/10/16
    • Real similarities and differences between today and the late 90s
    • Low correlation on the way up will likely mean low correlation on the way down, at least initially
    • Fixed income will dictate the go-forward AI spend
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    27 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #33: Goldilocks Earnings vs. the Three Bond Bears: ECB; BOJ; and the US Deficit

    Macro & Volatility™ #33: Goldilocks Earnings vs. the Three Bond Bears: ECB; BOJ; and the US Deficit
    2026/09/14
    • Bond bears are winning globally, but deficits may be the real story
    • Geopolitics and oil are driving rates more than inflation fears
    • Earnings, not rates, are still the equity market's steering wheel
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    20 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #32: De-Grossing, Momentum Shifts, and the VIX: Not Coincidences

    Macro & Volatility™ #32: De-Grossing, Momentum Shifts, and the VIX: Not Coincidences
    2026/07/29
    • This is a different type of de-leveraging
    • Higher equity correlation ≠ VIX explosion
    • Geopolitical and oil risks are for real
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    21 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #31: Why "Higher Everything" Makes Sense

    Macro & Volatility™ #31: Why "Higher Everything" Makes Sense
    2026/06/03
    • Equity rally is broad, earnings-driven, and still not stretched
    • Markets can tolerate higher rates until speed becomes the risk
    • AI capex is creating a sustained, structural inflation floor
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    31 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #30: Operation Epic Earnings

    Macro & Volatility™ #30: Operation Epic Earnings
    2026/05/05
    • Equity rally is fundamentally earnings-driven, not war “denial”
    • Excessive hedging mispriced the upside
    • Bonds are selling off because inflation is shifting from short-term to structural
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    26 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #29: Foolin'

    Macro & Volatility™ #29: Foolin'
    2026/04/01
    • Convexity conundrum: diversifying assets didn’t work
    • Commodities are not tariffs and cannot be altered at the stroke of a pen
    • Tape bombs are having diminishing impact
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    24 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #28: How has Operation Epic Fury affected the fear indices?

    Macro & Volatility™ #28: How has Operation Epic Fury affected the fear indices?
    2026/03/04
    • More about rotation than direction
    • Bonds are still not protecting
    • Implied correlation / VIX is at a record low
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    21 分
  • Macro & Volatility™ #27: Seismic Activity but No Real Fear

    Macro & Volatility™ #27: Seismic Activity but No Real Fear
    2026/02/03
    • Healthy correction in gold and silver
    • Higher nominal rates globally
    • Warsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX
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    20 分