• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost

• US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illness
• Tipping point for US Dollar weakness
• Risk appetite still going strong!

The winners, the losers, and the in-betweens

• Old economy vs New economy CapEx
• Trump has Made Europe Great Again (“MEGA”)
• US De-globalization is leading to Global De-correlation

• Realized volatility did the heavy lifting
• Trade (“Cold”) War discount
• Pace of news flow will slow

• What does Liberation Day mean for inflation?
• Bonds and the Fed are pointing to growth contraction and moderate stagflation
• Tail-hedging didn’t work
• Trump Put is very different than the Fed Put

• The bond market says ...
• What's driving the yields?
• The VIX continues to be higher for longer

• CEO FOMO, 30 years later.
• Using lessons from the past to understand risk today.
• A key difference in valuations, then and now.

The US political risk premium. Market corrections could be violent. Upside may be limited by PE contraction; downside may be limited by two Trump puts.