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  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging Under 4.3 Percent

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging Under 4.3 Percent
    2026/06/07
    The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, but a hidden shift is underway: long-term unemployment — people out of work for 27 weeks or more — is climbing sharply. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor market data to explain why this divergence matters more than the top-line jobs number. They break down the May JOLTS report showing job openings surging to 7.6 million, the disconnect between hiring and wage growth, and what the rising share of long-term jobless means for Fed policy and the broader economy. Using fresh data from the June 7, 2026 labor market snapshot, they explore whether the labor market is really as tight as it looks — and why the bond market might be pricing in a different story. Specific numbers, real policy implications, no filler. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JOLTS #JobsReport #FedPolicy #UnemploymentRate #EconomicData #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LaborForce #WageGrowth #JobOpenings #MayJobs #HiddenUnemployment #StructuralUnemployment #LaborMarketDivergence Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • Why the Yield Curve Steepening Is Not a Recession Signal

    Why the Yield Curve Steepening Is Not a Recession Signal
    2026/06/06
    On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the yield curve—the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.54 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.28 percent, widening the spread to 26 basis points. They argue that this steepening, often a classic recession warning when the curve inverts, is actually a sign of something different in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate flat at 2.36 percent, the hosts explain why bond markets are pricing in a 'softish' landing rather than a crash. They also connect the steepening to the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million and the drop in the Nasdaq by 5.1 percent over five days, showing how sectors are rotating away from tech and into value. No doom-mongering—just a clear look at what the bond market is really telling us about growth and inflation expectations. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #SteepeningCurve #RecessionSignals #MacroEconomics #InterestRates #JobOpenings #Nasdaq #TechSelloff #SoftLanding #InflationExpectations #EconomicData #PolicyOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk

    What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk
    2026/06/06
    This episode of Macro Tuesdays drills into the ongoing yield curve inversion — the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.28%, the 10-year at 4.54%, keeping the spread negative since mid-2022. Lucas and Luna discuss why this historically reliable recession signal hasn't yet delivered a downturn, whether the lag is different this time, and what the recent flattening of the curve means for growth expectations. With the S&P 500 down 2.8% in a week and the Nasdaq off 5.1%, the hosts examine whether markets are finally pricing in the slowdown the yield curve has been signaling. They also touch on the jobs report due Friday and how a strong labor market keeps defying the inversion's usual logic. #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionRisk #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #JobsReport #StockMarket #S&P500 #Nasdaq #2YearYield #10YearYield #MacroEconomics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    5 分
  • The Jobs Report Preview Nobody Is Talking About

    The Jobs Report Preview Nobody Is Talking About
    2026/06/05
    With the May jobs report coming Friday, most analysts are focused on the headline payroll number. Lucas and Luna dig into the data no one is watching: the surge in long-term unemployment that hit 1.8 million in April, even as job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. They explain why the hidden shift in labor market composition matters more than the topline, and how it connects to the Fed's next move. Plus, the bond market is sending a signal about wage growth that contradicts the official numbers. A data-heavy episode for anyone trying to read between the lines of the monthly jobs report. #JobsReport #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #BondMarket #WageGrowth #JOLTS #InitialJoblessClaims #Economics #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #May2026 #UnemploymentRate #ADPPayroll #TreasuryYields #InflationExpectations Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • The Hidden Surge in Long-Term Unemployment

    The Hidden Surge in Long-Term Unemployment
    2026/06/05
    The May jobs report is coming Friday, but beneath the headline payroll numbers lies a troubling trend: long-term unemployment is surging. While the overall jobless rate holds at 4.3 percent, the number of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more has jumped sharply. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including the JOLTS report showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, and explain why the composition of unemployment matters more than the rate itself. They explore the hidden costs for workers' skills, wages, and the broader economy, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. No hype, just the numbers and what they signal. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Economics #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Unemployment #WageGrowth #Macro #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #EconomicData #MayJobs #LaborForce #SkillErosion #Hiring Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • The Jobless Claims Signal Nobody Is Watching

    The Jobless Claims Signal Nobody Is Watching
    2026/06/04
    Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in the last week of May 2026, up from 212,000 the prior week — the largest one-week spike in over a year. Most analysts are brushing it off as noise ahead of Friday's payrolls report. But Lucas and Luna dig into why this number, paired with the surge in long-term unemployment, might be the first real crack in a labor market that has looked bulletproof. They explore what the claims data actually captures, how it compares to the JOLTS openings surge to 7.6 million, and whether the Fed's next move depends more on the margins than the averages. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy in real time. #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #Unemployment #InitialClaims #LongTermUnemployment #JOLTS #Payrolls #ADP #EconomicData #RecessionSignals #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #WeeklyEconomicNews #MarketMovingData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Why Job Openings Surging to 7.6 Million Is Not All Good News

    Why Job Openings Surging to 7.6 Million Is Not All Good News
    2026/06/04
    In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April—the highest in nearly two years. But they argue this isn't the unalloyed good news it might seem. They connect the surge to the recent ADP payroll report showing 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, weaker than the openings spike suggests. The hosts explain how the composition of openings—concentrated in low-wage sectors like leisure and hospitality—points to persistent churn rather than robust demand. They also tie in the bond market's reaction: the 10-year yield rising to 4.49 percent, signaling that the Fed may hold rates higher for longer. Luna challenges Lucas on whether the JOLTS data is becoming less reliable, and they discuss what this means for the labor market going into the second half of 2026. #JobOpenings #JOLTS #LaborMarket #ADP #Payrolls #FederalReserve #InterestRates #10YearYield #EconomicData #MacroEconomics #BondMarket #Inflation #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays #Economics #SmallCaps Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Hot ADP Payroll Data

    Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Hot ADP Payroll Data
    2026/06/03
    Private payrolls came in at 122,000 in May, beating expectations. But the bond market barely flinched. The 10-year yield actually ticked down on the news. Lucas and Luna break down why strong jobs data isn't moving yields — and what that says about the market's real concern. They dig into the disconnect between headline payrolls and the bond market's focus on inflation expectations, the Iran war premium fading, and the 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.39 percent. If the labor market is resilient and inflation is sticky, why aren't yields climbing? The answer may lie in what traders are pricing in for growth — and it's not what you'd expect. This episode drills into one specific number and what it reveals about the macro picture in early June 2026. #ADPPayrolls #BondMarket #10YearYield #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #IranWar #BreakevenRate #MarketDisconnect #FixedIncome #RealGDP #CorePCE #JobGrowth #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分