The AI productivity boom everyone is celebrating isn’t real. Strip out semiconductor operating leverage, and the average S&P 500 company is still below its 2022 margin highs. What looks like a productivity story is really just fixed-cost businesses growing into their capacity.

Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at New Edge Wealth, joins Jim Iuorio and Bobby Iaccino to break down what's really driving markets and what history says could happen next.

Timestamp

00:00 Intro and Sponsors
02:08 Friday's Sell-Off: Was It Anything to Worry About
02:28 SOX 76% Above 200-Day: the Rerating That Already Happened
04:19 Repricing, Not a Reckoning: Unprofitable Tech Up 65% Since March Lows
05:05 Dot-Com Bubble Parallels in Today's Market
06:28 The Two Components of Every Bubble: Real Earnings and Speculation
07:02 Real Earnings Existed in 1999 Too
09:01 What Happened to Unprofitable Tech in 2021: 80-90% Drawdowns
10:49 Jim's SMH Back Spread Trade
13:13 How Important Is the Consumer in This Capex Cycle
13:57 The Stock Market Is Now More Important for the Consumer Than Vice Versa
15:06 Real Wages Negative: Consumers Dipping Into Savings
16:24 We Are All One Trade: Why Micron's Gross Margin Is the Number That Matters
16:59 Volatility That Hurts: It's About Duration, Not Just Magnitude
17:52 US Large Cap Tech at 97th Percentile Positioning
19:00 1973 vs Today: Why This Oil Shock Is Different
20:54 Big Tech Shift: From Spending Cash to Raising Equity
22:28 CapEx Growth Forecasts: 10% Last Year, 80% for 2026
23:14 Google's Equity Offering: Tone Shift or Chink in the Armor
25:32 Why Frontier Models Won't Turn a Profit
26:30 Retail Now Drives Two-Thirds of Market Volume
26:54 Institutions Got to First Percentile Positioning
29:34 What Would Actually Trigger a 2000 or 2008 Scenario
30:02 History: 1996 to NASDAQ Peak in March 2000
31:25 How Cameron Defines a Bubble
32:42 Gold Breaking Down
34:11 Gold Below 200-Day for the First Time in Three Years
35:11 Gold Is Only an Inflation Hedge When the Fed Isn't Fighting It
36:44 Why Hot Inflation Was Always the Worst Thing for Gold
40:27 Infrastructure Players Rarely Win
41:15 The AI Productivity Boom Is Actually Semiconductor Operating Leverage
42:22 Micron: Negative Margins Three Years Ago, 80% Gross Margins Today
42:46 Strip Out Semis: Average S&P Still Below 2022 Margin Highs
43:34 Copper and Industrial Metals Stronger Than Precious for 3 Months
45:15 SpaceX IPO: What Sector, What Valuation, What It Signals
47:49 S&P Pushes Back on Relaxing Profitability Rule
48:54 Palantir Parallel: 90x Sales Marked the Top
51:15 Closing Thoughts: Travel, Italy, Costa Rica

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