Friday, November 14, 2025

Here’s what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.

• WTI crude: $59.6–$60 (+1.5% intraday)
• Brent: $63.9–$64 (+1.4% intraday)
• Henry Hub gas: ≈ $4.62/MMBtu (-0.6% intraday; still elevated vs recent months)

The headlines are pushing a “glut” narrative. The IEA flags a larger 2026 surplus as supply growth outpaces demand. In the U.S., the latest EIA data shows a 6.4 million-barrel crude build (week ending Nov 7) even as refinery runs and utilization climbed. Gasoline and distillates drew modestly, subtle signs of product pull despite the crude build. Meanwhile, sanctions and shipping frictions are stranding portions of Russian flows, adding underpriced tail risk.

What the herd is missing:

• Demand is rotating, not disappearing. Refinery utilization and product draws matter more than doom headlines.
• Gas setup is quietly constructive. Winter/LNG pull with 2026 guideposts near $4 supports upstream cash flows.
• “Excess supply” at $60 WTI breeds mispricings in acreage and working interests. Sophisticated capital positions before the story flips.

The read: prices stabilized off the lows; the narrative screams oversupply, but the micro tells (product draws, utilization, LNG gravity) say optionality is mispriced at the wellhead.

The move: if you’re aiming for monthly cash flow and 2025 tax elimination, don’t wait for $70 oil and bullish op-eds. Buy contradictions while they’re uncomfortable. Visit JoinIronHorse.com.

That’s your brief for Friday, November 14th. Let’s keep building.

Keywords: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing

© 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

This is The Iron Horse Daily Brief for Thursday, November 13, 2025.

Here's what moved overnight, and what it means for your capital.

WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel, down 4.34 percent. Brent crude dropped to $62.64 per barrel, down 3.87 percent. Natural gas held at $4.55 per MMBtu, down slightly but still elevated year-over-year.

The sell-off intensified after OPEC reversed its third-quarter forecast. The group now estimates a 500,000 barrel per day surplus, a complete reversal from its prior 400,000 barrel per day deficit forecast. U.S. crude production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. OPEC+ announced it will pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026.

Today, the market is watching two key data releases: the Consumer Price Index and EIA crude oil inventory data. The CPI will provide insight into inflation trends that could impact Federal Reserve policy. EIA inventories are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels, following last week's 5.2 million barrel build.

The headlines are screaming oversupply. OPEC sees a surplus. U.S. production is at record highs. The dollar is strong, pressuring commodity prices.

But here's what the herd is missing.

The IEA just reversed its peak oil demand thesis. In its World Energy Outlook published this week, the agency now projects global oil and gas demand will continue rising through 2050. That's a complete reversal from its previous forecast of peak demand before the end of this decade.

China is still fast-tracking 169 million barrels of new strategic storage capacity by 2026. They're stockpiling at cycle lows, not dumping demand.

On natural gas, LNG exports are averaging 17.8 billion cubic feet per day in November, near record levels. New LNG projects are adding 300 billion cubic meters of annual export capacity by 2030, a 50 percent increase. The EIA expects natural gas to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, up 16 percent year-over-year.

Geopolitically, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft are creating long-term supply risks. Lukoil declared force majeure on shipments from Iraq. The market is pricing in oversupply today, but geopolitical risk is building beneath the surface.

The read: WTI at $58.39. Brent at $62.64. OPEC reversed its forecast to a 500,000 barrel per day surplus. U.S. production hit a record 13.651 million barrels per day. But the IEA just reversed its peak demand thesis, now projecting demand rising through 2050. China is adding 169 million barrels of storage capacity and stockpiling at these prices. Natural gas LNG exports are hitting record levels, with 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity coming online by 2030. The EIA expects natural gas prices up 16 percent in 2026.

The herd sees $58 WTI and panics. Sophisticated investors see China building reserves at cycle lows, the IEA reversing its demand outlook, and structural natural gas demand accelerating.

The move: Most investors wait for confirmation. They want $70 oil and bullish headlines before they feel safe. But by the time the market breaks out, entry prices are higher, acreage is more expensive, and the asymmetric opportunity is gone.

If you're positioning for 2025 tax elimination and monthly cash flow, this is your window. Visit JoinIronHorse.com.

That's your brief for Thursday, November 13th. Let's keep building.

KEYWORDS: oil and gas investing, tax deductions, WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, working interests, monthly cash flow, OPEC surplus, IEA demand forecast, China strategic reserves, LNG exports, Permian Basin, Iron Horse Energy Fund, geopolitical risk, energy investing

© 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund

The oil and gas industry is massive and to keep it organized, we break it into three major sectors: upstream, midstream, and downstream.

Upstream – This is the exploration and production stage. It's all about finding hydrocarbons like oil and gas, drilling wells, and getting hydrocarbons out of the ground.

Midstream – This is the transportation and storage stage. Think pipelines, rail, and storage facilities — everything that moves oil from the wellhead to the refinery.

Downstream – This is the refining and distribution stage. It's where crude becomes gasoline, jet fuel, and the products needed to make things like plastics and rubber — that eventually ends up in your car, home, or business.

So upstream drills it, midstream moves it, and downstream transforms it.

Each segment has a different risk-reward profile and cash flow behavior. Let's dive a little deeper into it.

Upstream: Since we are actually exploring and drilling for oil, it carries more operational and commodity price risk than other segments. You're dealing with geology, decline curves, and the realities of the field. But here's the tradeoff: monthly cash flow, significant tax deductions (which is why working interests are sought out by high income earners), and a direct stake in real production. Upstream is the only part of the chain that directly participates in commodity upside. When oil prices rise, so do the checks. Investors here also capture powerful tax advantages — deductions for drilling costs and ongoing depletion allowances that no other sector can touch. And perhaps most importantly, upstream ownership gives you a direct economic interest in real production. You're not betting on a stock price, you're participating in a barrel.

Midstream is more stable. Midstream companies typically operate under long-term, fee-based contracts, which smooth out cash flow and reduce sensitivity to oil price volatility. For investors, midstream behaves a lot like a triple-net lease in commercial real estate — steady rent checks, lower risk, and yield that's driven more by volume than by commodity price. It's not flashy, but it's durable. If you're seeking stability and predictable yield, midstream is the toll road of energy.

Downstream, where the raw product becomes refined value. This includes refining, petrochemical processing, and retail distribution — the world of companies like Valero, Marathon, and Exxon's refining divisions. Downstream margins depend heavily on refining spreads — the difference between crude input costs and finished product prices. When that spread widens, refiners make money; when it tightens, margins vanish. It's also tied closely to economic cycles — fuel demand rises and falls with consumer behavior, travel, and industrial output. Downstream can deliver strong profits during demand booms, but it's the most exposed to macro volatility and least insulated by contractual cash flow.

Here's a quick analogy: Imagine a steak dinner and think of oil and gas like the beef business.

Upstream is raising and harvesting the cow — that's exploration and production.

Midstream is trucking the beef from the ranch to the butcher — this is pipelines and infrastructure.

Downstream is the butcher and steakhouse — refining and selling the final product.

We don't run the steakhouse. We're not hauling trucks. We own a working interest in the herd — and at Iron Horse, we get paid every month when that beef hits the market.

Thanks for tuning in to The Iron Horse Daily Brief, where smart capital meets real opportunity. We're building more than portfolios, so come join us at JoinIronHorse.com.

KEYWORDS: upstream oil and gas, midstream energy, downstream refining, working interests, tax deductions, monthly cash flow, exploration and production, energy investing, oil and gas sectors, Iron Horse Energy Fund, Wellhead Wednesday

© 2025 Iron Horse Energy Fund