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To spend $120k a year from age 60, you need about $3m to never touch your capital, or $2.1m if you plan to run it down to zero by 90. Most super calculators can't tell you whether you're on track, because they ignore investments held outside super, especially geared property, and they don't handle retiring before 60. In this episode, I walk through a set of tables you can use to add up your super, ETFs, and investment property and see where you'll land. I also cover how to choose between a perpetual and a depleting portfolio, why $1 contributed to super grows to nearly $47 compared with $21 outside it, and what to do if you're well behind or well ahead of your target. The tables and worked examples are on the blog, linked above.

00:00 Introduction and podcast ratings update
02:58 Why super calculators don't tell you if you're on track
04:12 The numbers: $2.1m depleting vs $3m perpetual
06:28 The early retirement problem: accessing super before 60
07:45 The wealth equation and why time matters most
08:07 Perpetual vs depleting portfolio: which to choose
11:31 Return assumptions and sequencing risk
12:30 Why life expectancy favours a perpetual portfolio
14:16 Modelling assumptions: returns, inflation and tax
17:14 Selling assets at retirement and the cost base assumption
19:30 How to use the tables
22:06 Investing inside vs outside super: $47 vs $21
23:07 Table 7: retiring before 60
24:58 Worked example: couple aged 40 with super and ETFs
26:04 Worked example: geared property investors aged 35
28:33 Table 8: spending more than $120,000 a year
29:49 What to do if you're materially behind target
32:19 What to do if you're materially ahead of target
33:57 Caveats and limitations of the modelling

Related episodes:

• Episode 402 (March 2026): on spending more today, or in the healthy years of retirement, once you're well on track. Stuart references this episode directly at 32:19.
• The super report episode (July 2026): on choosing the right super fund. Stuart references this at 25:46.

Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X

Run your own business?

Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/

Our most popular free guides:

Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.

Download them here

Got a question for the podcast?

Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au

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Important

This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.

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Back in 2023, Stuart argued that inflation and rates could stay higher for longer than most expected, drawing on 50 years of history showing that once inflation tops 8%, it typically takes a decade or more to settle. That call has aged well: after cutting through 2025, the RBA has already hiked three times in 2026, and underlying inflation has climbed back to 3.6% in a second wave the Bank's own models failed to anticipate.

But revisiting the research has sharpened his thinking. Stuart walks through three forces keeping inflation elevated: a less aggressive RBA, government spending, and the AI data-centre boom competing for the same workers and materials, while weighing newer studies suggesting credible inflation targets may tame it faster than the grim 11-year median implies.

His most important point has had too little attention: rate rises may simply bite less than they did 20 years ago. An ageing population, older households holding savings rather than debt, and mortgage offset balances up 49% since 2022 all mean a growing share of spending comes from people barely touched by higher rates. The uncomfortable corollary: cuts may not revive spending either. If your strategy relies on rate cuts, stress-test it.

Read Stuart's latest book? He's only got 19 reviews on Amazon so far, if Wealth by Design helped you, leaving one would mean a lot: https://www.amazon.com.au/review/create-review?asin=192318654X

Run your own business?

Check out Business by Design, Stuart and Mena's show on starting, growing and exiting a business, at https://www.businessbydesignpodcast.com/

Our most popular free guides:

Over the years we've written hundreds of articles. These three bring our best thinking together on the topics that matter most right now: choosing a super fund, debt recycling, and navigating the new tax changes.

Download them here

Got a question for the podcast?

Email us at questions@investopoly.com.au

Subscribe to my weekly blog:

Stay connected here

Important

This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.