In this episode of Property, Straight Up, host Warwick Brookes sits down with Gerard Burg, economist at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), for a data-driven conversation about what is actually happening in Australian property right now.

Gerard works with national property data every day, and he brings that perspective to some of the biggest questions buyers, sellers and investors are asking. From Melbourne's slide down the national leaderboard to Adelaide overtaking it for the first time in history, from the structural supply crisis no government target will fix quickly, to the apartment submarkets where owners have been losing money for nearly a decade.

They also cover the early signals from the negative gearing and capital gains changes, what three consecutive rate rises have done to first home buyer confidence, and the one mistake Gerard says buyers will look back on and regret.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Melbourne's underperformance is real but overstated. Affordability is drawing buyers priced out of other markets.
• Adelaide overtook Melbourne for the first time in history, driven by pandemic population shifts and inadequate supply, not fundamentals that are likely to hold.
• Construction costs and trade shortages mean new supply will not rescue affordability anytime soon, but they do put a floor under prices.
• Melbourne CBD unit values peaked in March 2017 and have not recovered. Oversupply, not demand, is the story.
• The negative gearing changes will discourage investment, but it is too early for the data to show exactly how much.
• Three rate rises have started to cancel out the benefit of the government's 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers.
• The investors who come out ahead are the ones who act on opportunity when it appears rather than waiting to time the bottom perfectly.

ABOUT DOMAIN & CO

Buying or selling a home is one of the biggest decisions of your life. Often the biggest financial decision you'll ever make. Bigger than anything else you'll sign your name to.

And the people meant to help you make it have started to look a lot like the people you didn't trust in the first place.

The polished ones in the sharp suits. The corporate machines who never learn your name. Or worst of all. No one. Just you and a portal and a hunch.

We've spent thirty years on both sides of property. The buy and the sell. The boom and the bust. The houses that grew. The ones that didn't. The agents you'd want in your corner. The ones you wouldn't.

We've walked the same families through five, six transactions across decades. First home. Family home. Forever home. The next chapter after that.

So we don't pitch. We don't perform. We don't take work we don't believe in. We just tell you what we'd do, if it were us in your position.

For property, told straight. We're your property people.

https://domainandco.com.au/

Timestamps

00:00 – Introduction

00:54 – Guest Introduction: Gerard burg, Cotality

01:36 – Gerard's Career Background

03:18 – How Cotality Analyses Property Data

04:09 – The CoreLogic to Cotality Rebrand

05:28 – Media Narratives vs. Real Data

06:14 – The Case for Melbourne as an Investor Market

08:04 – Adelaide Overtaking Melbourne Explained

09:50 – Melbourne's Supply Advantage

10:49 – Construction Costs & the Trade Shortage Problem

12:19 – Investor Policy & New Build Requirements

14:33 – Post-COVID Buyer Behaviour Shifts

15:53 – Data Overload & the Buyer Advocate Boom

17:46 – Melbourne Apartment Losses: The Data Story

20:08 – Undervalued Pockets in Melbourne

21:41 – Negative Gearing Changes: What to Watch

23:14 – Rate Rises & First Home Buyer Capacity

24:47 – Five-Year Outlook: What Matters Most

25:35 – Close