We unpack October retail sales: a flat headline hides a stronger 0.8% rise in core spending while restaurants and autos slip. We explain what a tepid consumer means for Q4 growth, markets, and the odds of early Fed rate cuts and tax relief next year.

• government data returns and date context
• headline retail sales flat at 0.0%
• gas, health and personal care, and building materials decline
• core control group rises 0.8%, strongest since June
• autos weaken after EV credit roll-off
• restaurants see biggest drop since February
• implications for GDP and consumer strength
• potential for early Fed rate cuts
• expected tax relief as a consumer lifeline

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