2026 Industrial Outlook: Market Rebalancing, Big Box Demand & Nearshoring

Live at the IAMC conference in Little Rock, hosts interview Stephanie Rodriguez, who leads Colliers' industrial platform, about her people-focused approach to client and team relationships and her extensive travel (over 300,000 American Airlines miles last year). She discusses Colliers' positioning and performance, noting an uptick after Q1 in industrial deal and revenue counts and a stronger start to 2026, plus continued talent recruitment. Rodriguez highlights regional market dynamics: low-vacancy, conservative development and steady rent growth in the central region; strong Southeast demand driven by population growth and onshoring/nearshoring; and West Coast stabilization tied to ports. Growth drivers include steady e-commerce, dominant 3PL leasing activity, reshored advanced manufacturing (chips, pharmaceuticals), and capital-intensive data centers. Institutional owners remain focused on build-to-suit, with selective return to speculative development in low-vacancy markets and renewed big-box demand, including increased Amazon activity.

0:00 Intro and Guest Introduction

2:15 Colliers Platform and Regional Trends

5:10 Growth Sectors: 3PLs and Manufacturing

7:00 Institutional Perspectives and Spec Development

8:20 Big Box Trends and Upcoming Conferences

Industrial Advisors Podcast Live at IAMC: Dallas Bulk Demand, Spec Development, Shallow Bay Challenges, and Power Constraints

Live from the IAMC forum in Little Rock, the Industrial Advisors podcast hosts interview Chloe Garside of the Sansone Group about her move to Dallas as a development partner and what she's seeing in industrial real estate. She describes accelerating bulk demand nationally and in Dallas, noting Sansone has six million-square-foot spec buildings under construction or existing, with four already in lease talks, contributing to pushback toward build-to-suit for bulk due to limited availability. In Dallas, rent premiums favor bulk over sub-300,000-square-foot product, and she prefers 300,000–600,000-square-foot cross-dock specs, with 900,000–1.2 million as the big-box range. The group discusses shallow-bay/flex demand but high costs and infill site challenges, plus rising competition for land and power as data centers drive pricing expectations and utility delays, making power a daily tenant concern and prompting bridge solutions like alternative generation.

0:00 Intro and Chloe Garside's Career Journey

3:30 The State of the Dallas Industrial Market

6:45 Trends in Bulk Speculative Development

10:15 The Challenge of Shallow Bay and Flex Space

13:45 Data Centers and the Competition for Power

17:30 Creative Power Solutions and Market Outlook

Amanda Sevilla on the Value of IAMC for Corporate Occupiers

Live from Little Rock on the final day of IAMC, the Industrial Advisors podcast hosts interview Amanda Sevilla of Expeditors about her experience with the conference and why she joined. Sevilla says corporate occupier teams often run lean, and IAMC uniquely centers corporate tenants, creating a more even playing field than other conferences and enabling relationship-building that continues beyond the event. She values the community feel, honest and packed breakout sessions where real estate leaders share challenges and solutions, and uplifting general-session speakers, including John O'Leary. She notes her first IAMC in Greenville helped her discover the year-round network among the roughly 500-person group. Sevilla also cites benefits from landlord-run customer advisory councils for direct C-suite feedback, and she looks forward to the next IAMC in Columbus.

00:00 Why Join IAMC

00:56 Live From Little Rock

01:21 Conference Highlights

01:52 How Amanda Got Involved

03:08 Best Sessions and Breakouts

04:10 Favorite Host City

05:07 Other Conferences Worth It

06:10 Next Stop Columbus

06:32 Wrap Up and Thanks

Washington's Proposed Millionaires Tax (SB 6346) and the "Seattle Tax Stack": Mechanics, Migration, and Real Estate Impacts

Industrial Advisors Podcast hosts Bill Condon and Matt McGregor discuss Washington's proposed "Millionaires Tax," SB 6346, a 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million, noting it can effectively hit dual-income households and "lumpy" stock-based compensation. They describe a cumulative Seattle "tax stack" (9.9% state, 5% social housing, 2.4% JumpStart, 0.58% WA Cares) exceeding 18% before federal taxes, potentially reaching 55–60% total, and argue it could influence jobs, investment, sports free agents, and real estate demand, including taxation of Washington-sourced income for nonresidents. Using an AI-generated deep dive built from documents, the episode compares migration and revenue dynamics in New York and California, explains domicile-planning timelines, highlights QSBS (Section 1202) as a potential shelter, and emphasizes the risk that the $1 million threshold could be lowered, especially if tech valuations fall and projected revenues miss.

0:00 Cold open: the $1M household threshold
0:46 Introduction to Washington's proposed millionaires tax
2:08 RSUs, deferred income, and one-time tax events
3:10 Seattle's 18% local tax stack explained
5:31 Commercial real estate and Washington-sourced income
7:00 Investor demand, property values, and economic ripple effects
8:01 Why Bill and Matt used AI for this episode
10:15 AI deep dive: tax flight and wealth migration
11:19 Washington as a national tax policy test case
14:32 Revenue projections and the 21,000 filer base
15:22 The Seattle tax stack breakdown
16:50 Federal taxes and the 55%–60% combined burden
18:47 The real estate exemption in SB 6346
19:37 Lessons from Los Angeles Measure ULA
22:57 Luxury housing demand and high-net-worth buyer risk
24:11 2028 effective date and relocation planning
26:35 RSUs and "lumpy vesting" risk for tech workers
28:05 The marriage penalty in the proposed tax structure
30:06 QSBS as a potential shelter for founders
33:13 California, New York, and wealth migration data
36:38 Remote work and the new mobility of high earners
38:47 Why the $1M threshold may not stay fixed
41:04 Massachusetts and the risk of expanding the tax base
43:29 Tech market correction risk and revenue shortfalls
44:32 Final takeaway: the "leaky bucket" problem
45:06 Closing comments

NAIOP Washington on Industrial Development: Changing Perceptions, Policy Headwinds, and an Economic Impact Study

Bill Condon and Matt McGregor host NAIOP Washington guests Drew Zaborowski (Bear Creek Real Estate Development) and Carter Nelson (NAIOP WA) to discuss challenges facing industrial development in the state of Washington. They describe persistent misconceptions that industrial means outdated, polluting factories and growing anti-industrial rhetoric driving local dock-door restrictions, size limits, and moratoriums often enacted without data on lost tax revenue. Key headwinds include broad, vague environmental justice policies that can shift responsibility for past impacts to new developers, the 2021 energy code adding roughly $5 per square foot through electrification, EV-ready parking, solar, and testing requirements, as well as the grid-capacity limits that force costly infrastructure upgrades. They highlight Pierce County as constructive to work with and explain NAIOP's industrial economic impact study (available on NAIOP WA's website) as a data tool to counter "low-wage job" claims and support advocacy, funding, and member involvement.

0:00 Introduction to the guests and NAIOP WA

2:15 Drew Zaborowski's background and role in government affairs

5:05 Legislative headwinds and anti-industrial rhetoric

7:45 Environmental justice and the burden on new development

10:15 Debunking the low wage job myth in industrial sectors

12:50 Modern facilities vs the old factory perception

15:10 The impact of the 2021 energy code on development costs

18:25 Power grid capacity and utility challenges

20:45 Success stories in Pierce County and Frederickson

22:15 The NAIOP Industrial Economic Impact Study

23:00 How to get involved and support advocacy efforts

Arson Destroys 1.2M Sq Ft Kimberly-Clark Warehouse: Supply Chain Shock and Warehouse Fire Lessons

On this Five-Minute Friday episode of the Industrial Advisors podcast, hosts Bill Condon and Matt McGregor discuss a 1.2 million square foot Kimberly-Clark warehouse fire in the Inland Empire that they immediately suspected was arson because the entire building burned despite sprinkler systems typically containing fires. They note Kimberly-Clark distributes paper goods and that the facility held about 3% of its U.S. capacity serving roughly 50 million people. The fire reportedly began around 12:30 AM during a graveyard shift with about 20 employees present; everyone escaped without casualties, and the suspected arsonist—described as a disgruntled employee of a third-party logistics operator—allegedly live-streamed igniting pallets before leaving and later being arrested. They relate other major warehouse fires and cite an AI search suggesting substantial warehouse fires occur more than once per year, underscoring the need for proper fire suppression systems.

0:00 The Inland Empire Warehouse Fire

1:15 Arson Suspicions and 3PL Impact

2:45 Supply Chain Disruptions

3:50 Historical Warehouse Fires in the Valley

5:10 Fire Safety and Suppression Importance

Industrial Advisors Q1 2026 Recap: Vacancy Hits 10.3%, Deliveries Drive Negative Absorption, Activity Rising

Bill Condon and Matt McGregor recap Q1 2026 industrial market conditions, noting overall vacancy reached 10.3% (first time above 10% in their careers) and net absorption around negative 1 million square feet, pressured by roughly 3.1 million square feet of deliveries and ongoing subleasing. Despite weak headline numbers, they cite increased leasing activity, including seven deals over 100,000 square feet (four new deals) and expect about 6 million square feet of large deals to be signed in coming quarters, with the hosts predicting positive absorption in Q2 followed by a strong year. Submarket vacancies include Pierce County at 12.8%, Kent Valley at 10.3%, North end 8.7%, Eastside 7.1%, and Thurston County 6.9%. Construction is slowing (about 1.5 million square feet under construction across four buildings), while investment sales totaled $226 million, led by Gateway North at $76 million and Aries' $40 million acquisition.

0:00 Intro and Q1 2026 Market Recap

0:45 Vacancy Hits 10.3%

2:05 Negative Absorption and What's Driving It

3:20 6 Million Square Feet of Large Deals Ahead

5:05 Submarket Breakdown Across the Region

7:10 Seven Leases Over 100,000 SF

8:30 Construction Pipeline Slows Sharply

9:40 Notable Investment Sales in Q1

11:15 Oldest Vacancies and Tenant Opportunities

13:10 Q2 Outlook and Market Forecast

Industrial Advisors Podcast: Travis Hale on Pacific Northwest Industrial Development, Class A Flight to Quality, and Land/Entitlement Challenges

On this episode of the Industrial Advisors podcast, Bill Condon and Matt McGregor interview Travis Hale, partner at Panattoni Development, about Pacific Northwest industrial development. Hale describes a continued flight to "new" Class A product, noting that 2015-era Class A can now be first-gen and may see rent declines while brand-new Class A is pushing rents. He outlines Panattoni's I-5 corridor activity across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, citing roughly 14 million SF across 34 Seattle-office projects, about five new starts this year, and key developments including Fred310 in Frederickson, Des Moines Creek/Seattle Gateway near SeaTac, and Mount Vista in Ridgefield/Vancouver. They discuss market vacancy (about 10% Seattle, 6.8% Portland), big-box demand, tight land supply, multi-year entitlements, improving equity conditions, and the organizational impact of Bart Brynestad's retirement and his "get it leased" philosophy.

0:00 The flight to quality in industrial real estate

2:45 Introducing Travis Hale and Panattoni Development

5:30 Current projects and the big box market outlook

8:15 Understanding vacancy rates and rent growth

11:00 Land competition and the entitlement process

14:30 Pioneering new markets and job distribution

17:45 The state of equity and capital markets

20:15 Regional trends and the legacy of Bart Brynestad