First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches.

Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The technocrats may plan to edge Russia from “gas station” to “supermarket,” but is this viable?

The Sunday Times article I mention is here, Ben Aris's BNE Intellinews piece here, and the signup page for Thursday's crisis exercise here.

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A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people who know what they’re doing. Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1552, learning crucial lessons of warfare and statecraft that Putin the Not So Great neglected when invading Ukraine in 2022.

Spinning off my new book, Siege of Kazan 1552: Ivan the Terrible breaks the Kazan khanate (Osprey), I look at how that campaign showed the power of five disciplines: promote competence, raise the right army for the fight, plan supply first, empower specialists, and build morale on a story that endures contact with reality. And how the Ukraine was has shown the cost of neglecting them. The war will change Russia—its economy, its veterans, its ties to Europe—just as Kazan changed Muscovy. The only open question is whether leaders choose the lessons that build a state, or the myths that break one.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connection in the Epstein case risks missing the real scandal: how powerful people and institutions tolerated what they knew.

Then, to answer the larger question—what kind of country is Russia?—I spin off two books: a long view of survey data that charts a hybrid regime’s rise and fracture after 2014, and a cultural study that sees Russia as fluid, formed by global flows rather than failing toward someone else’s model. Putin’s project tries to bank the gains of global capitalism while fencing off its social and political shocks. That balancing act is faltering. Deglobalising Russia has become both strategy and trap.

But arguably Russia isn’t an aberration; it’s an early case of how globalisation scrambles identity, power, and legitimacy. From Brexit to big tech, we’re all negotiating the same tides—just with different weather.

The books are Paul Chaisty & Stephen Whitefield’s How Russians Understand the New Russia (Princeton UP, 2025), and Vera Michlin-Shapir’s Fluid Russia: between the global and the national in the post-Soviet era (Cornell UP, 2021).

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

Support the show