The AI Boom That Could Crash Markets and the Economy: Fact or Fiction?
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The AI Boom That Could Crash Markets and the Economy: Fact or Fiction?
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概要
In this news-style episode, Simon and Dan break down Citrini Research’s The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis—a “note from the future” dated June 30, 2028 that frames the most bullish AI adoption path as a surprisingly bearish outcome for the real economy. They walk through the core feedback loop: companies deploy AI to boost productivity and margins, layoffs rise (especially in white-collar roles), consumer spending weakens, and the cycle reinforces itself—creating what the piece calls “ghost GDP,” where productivity climbs but wages and demand don’t keep up.
From there, the duo digs into the sectors Citrini argues get hit first and hardest: SaaS (seat contraction + customers using AI as renewal leverage), the intermediation layer (agents shopping travel, subscriptions, insurance, delivery, and more), and even payment rails as AI agents chase lower-cost settlement via stablecoins. They also connect the dots to private credit and insurance flywheels—where mark-to-model portfolios can look stable until forced selling and capital needs expose stress—and what rising unemployment could mean for housing in once “prime” white-collar markets.
Tickers discussed: V, MA, AXP, DFS, PYPL, AMZN, WMT, EXPE, UBER, DASH, SHOP, GOOGL, PLTR, TRI, OWL, APO, BN, KKR, CRM, ADBE, AIG
Citrini research report
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