Welcome to Gold Bank Podcast. Today we’re covering Fresnillo’s latest results, a major UK-listed precious-metals name and why its jump in profit, dividend, and 2026 guidance matters for UK investors watching gold and silver exposure through mining stocks.

Main news discussion

Fresnillo PLC reported higher sales and profit for 2025, driven by stronger gold and silver prices, and proposed its highest dividend since listing. Pre-tax profit more than doubled to $2.08bn (from $743.9m) and revenue rose 31% to $4.56bn, though it noted lower metal volumes sold offset some of the price benefit. Fresnillo also gave 2026 production guidance: 42.0–46.5m oz of silver and 500,000–550,000 oz of gold, with 2026 capex guided at around $765m and exploration spend expected at $260m, including drilling at Probe Gold; JPMorgan flagged capex guidance as above its forecast, and Fresnillo shares were down 2.7% on the morning.

Market or investor insight

For investors, this is a clean example of how a high gold/silver price environment can expand margins even when volumes soften — Fresnillo also highlighted cost reductions and a favourable peso effect on costs.

Analysis/opinion: the market reaction (shares down despite strong numbers) suggests traders may be focusing on 2026 capex intensity and the implied free-cashflow outlook, not just 2025 earnings strength. For UK portfolios, it’s a reminder that miners can lag the metal when guidance shifts the cash-return story.

Winners

Fresnillo: Higher realised prices helped drive a big profit jump and supported a record payout, reinforcing operating leverage to gold and silver prices.

JPMorgan: Big results days typically increase investor focus on forecasts and guidance interpretation, especially around capex and valuation.

Greatland Resources

Momentum is being driven by expansion plans at Telfer and heavy exploration activity/budgeting — the kind of growth narrative markets often reward when gold is strong.

Losers

Johnson Matthey

The sale price of its Catalyst Technologies unit to Honeywell was cut significantly after weaker performance, a negative signal around value realisation in a PGM-linked industrial business.

Hochschild Mining

Shares have been strong on metals, but guidance commentary flags potential output declines and higher costs in 2026, which can pressure margins and sentiment if prices cool.

Valterra Platinum

Raised a clear country/policy risk issue: Zimbabwe export-proceeds repayments/backlog. That kind of repatriation friction can weigh on valuation multiples even in a strong PGM tape.

The takeaway for UK investors

Fresnillo has shown strong pricing power and cost control translating into cash and dividends, but the market is clearly weighing what higher 2026 capex means for future free cashflow. That tension strong metals vs. spending demands are exactly what drives volatility in UK-listed precious-metals miners.

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