GDT posted its eighth consecutive decline this week, driven by heavy global milk supplies and weaker demand signals. Skim milk powder underperformed expectations at –1.7%, while whole milk powder fell 2.5% but beat futures-implied fears. Cheddar was the lone standout, jumping 7.2% on limited New Zealand volume and what appears to be highly targeted Middle East buying. Butter, however, stole the spotlight—dropping 12.2% and extending a decline now totaling more than 37% from recent highs.

Regionally, China bought more than last year but less than the previous auction, Southeast Asia stepped back, and the Middle East showed strong activity—likely influencing cheese strength. Across the board, surging milk production in the U.S., Europe, New Zealand, and South America continues to weigh on prices, with supply outpacing demand and tightening U.S. export competitiveness.

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