Five Senate primaries this cycle. Five candidates with an enormous money advantage. Five losses. Dr. Casey Burgat of George Washington University joins Micaela Isler and Adam Belmar to work out what campaign money actually buys, and where it stops working. Casey’s Substack piece “So Much for Buying Elections” is the starting point, but the conversation turns practical fast: if the late advertising blitz has the worst return, what does that say about the PAC dollar written early, off a relationship, before anyone knows the race is competitive?

Crash Course with Casey Burgat
https://www.caseyburgat.com/

Two primaries, two big polling misses. Eric Wilson of the Center for Campaign Innovation and the Campaign Trend Podcast returns to explain what broke in Wisconsin and Michigan, what margin of error really measures, whether AI "synthetic polls" deserve a line in your research budget, and how PAC directors should allocate resources when the numbers can't be trusted. Plus: the four types of voters — mobilizers, connectors, spectators, outsiders — and why the loudest 9% is distorting what campaigns think they know.

How much of your PAC's fundraising year is you — and how much is just the economy you're operating in? Chad Taylor of SAGAC Public Affairs put it to the test: 15 cycles, 300 business PACs, $4 billion in receipts. The surprise? When you de-trend the data, a hotter economy means slower fundraising. Uncertainty drives giving; prosperity doesn't. Adam Belmar and David Schild unpack the "insurance theory" of PAC fundraising, the three-factor UPP check for reading your cycle, and why your fall ask should open with the congressional calendar — not last quarter's earnings.