In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear

How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages

Weakening market breadth and its implications

Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not

The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets

Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators

Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold

Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads

How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using Research Affiliates’ capital markets expectations.

Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate

🎯 Topics Covered:

Why stimulus doesn't always stimulate economic growth

The hidden cost of high government spending

Lessons from Japan, Ireland, and the EU on fiscal policy

Why Keynes wouldn’t recognize today’s “Keynesianism”

The role of stimulus during crises like COVID and 2008

Tariffs as strategy vs. economic drag

Rob’s take on Trump, trade wars, and negotiating tactics

Crowding out: What debt does to private investment

Research Affiliates’ expected returns across major asset classes

Why large-cap U.S. stocks may be the most overvalued

The opportunity in value, small-cap, and international markets

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.

Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible.

What We Cover:

Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parity

How to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only options

The concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and puts

How put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocks

The real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really are

How professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditions

A deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds