『Episode 47: Demography, Europe, and the Western Balkans’ Future with Alida Vračić』のカバーアート

Episode 47: Demography, Europe, and the Western Balkans’ Future with Alida Vračić

Episode 47: Demography, Europe, and the Western Balkans’ Future with Alida Vračić

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 Discussion Highlights:Global demographic megatrends include aging populations, declining fertility rates, and diverging regional population dynamics.Migration patterns involve both forced displacement from conflict zones such as Ukraine and Palestine and labor migration from the Western Balkans, with climate-related movement remaining unpredictable.Depopulation in the Western Balkans is driven by inaccurate census data, economic factors that incentivize emigration, steadily declining fertility rates, and cultural influences on family size.Many countries in the region face labor shortages as plumbers, electricians, and healthcare workers emigrate, prompting policy responses to attract migrant labor, cover an estimated €600 million integration cost in Croatia, and implement language instruction and integration programs.Populist political discourse often exploits public fears about migration, while political leaders frequently show reluctance to acknowledge domestic labor shortages and plan beyond short electoral cycles.Europe’s geopolitical context is shaped by U.S.-China competition, the continuation of the war in Ukraine, and uneven or delayed European responses to crises, such as the conflict in Gaza.The current EU enlargement process is critiqued as overly merit-based, and many argue for the package accession of all Western Balkan states, drawing lessons from Croatia’s recent membership and anticipating a changing nature of the future European Union.Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-Dayton governance system succeeded in halting widespread violence but remains hampered by persistent power-sharing gridlock, redundant international structures such as the Office of the High Representative, and ongoing challenges in constitutional and education system reforms.Thirty years after Dayton, instances of inter-ethnic violence have remained low since 1995, but schooling and commemorative practices remain fragmented, and domestic dialogue on wartime accountability has stalled.EU integration offers the potential to replace international oversight with European Union frameworks while addressing governance deficits, pervasive corruption, and the need for electoral reforms.About Alida VračićAlida Vračić is a political scientist and lawyer. She co-founded and serves as executive director of Populari, a Sarajevo-based think tank specializing in post-conflict state-building, democratization, good governance, and migration in the Western Balkans. Vračić holds a law degree from the University of Sarajevo and Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, where she specialized in criminal procedure law, an M.Sc. in International Public Policy from University College London, and completed Executive Education for non-government executives at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Before founding Populari in 2007, she worked for the State Court Prosecutor’s team in Bosnia, at the Human Rights Commission of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and led Balkan-wide projects at the Human Rights Centre, University of Sarajevo, and the Spanish Institutional Programme. Vračić has been affiliated with several academic and policy institutions, including as a former Europe's Futures fellow at IWM, the European Council on Foreign Relations as a Visiting Fellow, and the German Marshall Fund as a Marshall Memorial Fellow. Further Reading & ResourcesPopulari Think Tank: https://populari.org/en populari.orgIWM Europe’s Futures Program (Alida Vračić profile): https://www.iwm.at/europes-futures/fellow/alida-vracic iwm.atECFR Profile (Alida Vračić): https://ecfr.eu/profile/alida-vracic ecfr.eu Ivan Vejvoda is Head of the Europe's Futures program at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM Vienna) implemented in partnership with ERSTE Foundation. The program is dedicated to the cultivation of knowledge and the generation of ideas addressing pivotal challenges confronting Europe and the European Union: nexus of borders and migration, deterioration in rule of law and democracy and European Union’s enlargement prospects.The Institute for Human Sciences is an institute of advanced studies in the humanities and social sciences. Founded as a place of encounter in 1982 by a young Polish philosopher, Krzysztof Michalski, and two German colleagues in neutral Austria, its initial mission was to create a meeting place for dissenting thinkers of Eastern Europe and prominent scholars from the West.Since then it has promoted intellectual exchange across disciplines, between academia and society, and among regions that now embrace the Global South and North. The IWM is an independent and non-partisan institution, and proudly so. All of our fellows, visiting and permanent, pursue their own research in an environment designed to enrich their work and to render it more accessible within and beyond academia.For further information about the Institute:https://www.iwm.at/

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