This episode tackles one of the most important thinking traps to avoid in your 20s when evaluating your decisions.

Decisions and outcomes are not the same. Yet many of us confuse the two, judging the quality of a decision based solely on how things turn out afterward. If the outcome is good, we assume the decision was good. If the outcome is bad, we assume the decision was bad.

This pitfall is known as outcome bias, and it can limit learning and make it much harder to improve your decision-making skills.

In your 20s, when you are making high-impact choices about careers, relationships, and major life events, outcome bias can cause you to draw the wrong lessons from decisions that were actually well thought out.

This episode explores a good decision with a bad outcome and a bad decision with a good outcome. We make this concrete by following Jim’s story and examining how a reasonable decision to plan an outdoor wedding ends up leading to an unlucky outcome.

By the end of this episode, you’ll be able to spot outcome bias in your own life, extract better lessons from your experiences, and build decision-making skills that compound throughout your 20s.

Now It’s Your Turn

Take 5–10 minutes to reflect about a decision you made recently that had a clear outcome.

Now separate the decision from the outcome.

• First, notice if the outcome was good or bad.
• Then, regardless of the outcome, did the decision felt right at the time?
• Was your choice aligned with your values?

Remember, a good decision can still lead to a bad outcome… and a bad decision can end up with a lucky outcome.

Focus on noticing the difference between "the decision" and "the outcome" not judging yourself by the result.

And if you're up for it, share what you discovered in the comments so others can benefit from your reflection!