The budget headlines are everywhere, but the bigger story is what sits underneath them: inflation pressure, government spending, and what the RBA might be forced to do next. We sit down with Peter O’Malley to break down economist Warren Hogan’s hard-edged view of the 2026 Federal Budget, including his argument that Australia becomes inflationary once GDP growth pushes above 2%, while spending keeps running hotter than the economy can comfortably absorb. If that’s the setup, interest rates don’t fall because we hope they will, they fall only when policy settings and inflation finally line up.

We also talk politics without getting lost in it: the claim that the budget is designed to ring-fence votes, the “care economy” debate, and why Hogan says the intergenerational inequality framing won’t deliver the outcomes being promised. From there we move to the real economy: small business viability, cost pass-through, and why the bond market has been signalling the rate hiking cycle may not be finished.

Then we get practical about Sydney real estate. SQM Research data shows a weak auction clearance rate and a surge in postponed auctions, but Peter explains why the auction process itself can be the wrong fit in a cautious market. We cover how to filter media noise, why “sell first” matters more than ever, and how buyers and sellers should think in terms of changeover price. We finish with rentals and investing: negative gearing is grandfathered for existing landlords, but future investor demand may fade unless prices, rents, and yields recalibrate.
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