『Ep 1: CRWD at 110x cash flow. Earnings week: NBIS, HIMS, ASTS, RKLB, CBRS』のカバーアート

Ep 1: CRWD at 110x cash flow. Earnings week: NBIS, HIMS, ASTS, RKLB, CBRS

Ep 1: CRWD at 110x cash flow. Earnings week: NBIS, HIMS, ASTS, RKLB, CBRS

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CrowdStrike (CRWD) trades at 110 times free cash flow, and the two investors who know it best split on what to do about it. Shay Boloor and Brad Freeman of Stock Market Nerd open their new weekly show with a full CrowdStrike deep dive, then preview the seven names reporting in a loaded AI earnings week.

The CrowdStrike conversation starts with the July 2024 outage: the company shut the world off for a few hours, handed its entire competitive landscape a free shot, and lost no meaningful market share. Two years later the SIEM, cloud, and identity businesses run at a $2 billion rate, Falcon Flex is changing how customers buy security by letting them commit to a pool of spend instead of signing product-by-product contracts, and the agentic SOC is the next act. The problem is the price. Brad sold every share on valuation at 35 times sales and has no complaint about the business. Shay trimmed 15% in July to fund AI power names and still cannot bring himself to exit a stock he says may neither reach $300 nor break below $100 for a long time. Both of them dismantle the idea that frontier AI models replace security vendors: a model that hallucinates 15 to 20% of the time does not get the keys to your digital estate.

Then the week ahead. Nebius (NBIS) reports Wednesday pre-market with a capacity story: estimates already came down for Q2 while 2027 held, because data centers need power connections, transformers, and cooling before a GPU earns a dollar. Hims (HIMS) is mid-transition with gross margin down 8 points and GAAP net income margin swinging from 8% to negative 15%. Sea Limited (SE) is taking Brazil while the watch item is credit risk in Indonesia. CAVA at 35 times EBITDA works out to roughly 102 times earnings once store depreciation is counted. Rocket Lab (RKLB) rides entirely on Neutron staying on track. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the most speculative name in the group and does not own its own launches. Cerebras (CBRS) is expected to grow from $865 million this year toward $8 billion by 2029 and already costs 45 times sales. The show closes with Shay's tin hat theory on a data center pullback into the midterms and Brad's case that mega-cap token pricing and open source models are squeezing OpenAI and Anthropic from both ends.

Watch the full episode with chapters on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jpvWWyEOCNk

New episodes every Monday, so you know what to watch before the week trades.

Nothing in this episode is investment advice. Shay and Brad discuss their own portfolios and hold positions in some of the names covered, including CrowdStrike and Nebius.

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