エピソード

  • What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026

    What the Yield Curve Steepening Means for 2026
    2026/06/07
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The hosts examine the role of term premiums, the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation expectations, and why a steepening curve doesn't always mean 'all clear' for the economy. They also discuss how investors should interpret the bond market's message versus the GDP data showing only 1.6 percent annualized growth. Packed with specific numbers and real-market context, this episode helps you read the macro tea leaves without the jargon. #YieldCurve #SteepeningYieldCurve #TreasuryYields #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations #TermPremium #EconomicGrowth #GDP #RecessionSignal #IranConflict #MacroEconomics #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #EconomicIndicators Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy

    Capacity Utilisation and the Hidden Slack in the Economy
    2026/06/07
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation picture, the Fed's cautious stance, and what it means for investors. Lucas walks through the data from April 2026, contrasts it with the 2021-2022 rebound, and explains why capacity utilisation tends to peak before recessions. Luna asks whether the manufacturing weakness is structural—from reshoring and automation—or just cyclical. The episode closes with a look at the jobs report due this Friday and what a capacity utilisation uptick could signal about the broader economy. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #FedPolicy #Inflation #GDPGrowth #Manufacturing #EconomicSlack #BusinessInvestment #Reshoring #Automation #JobsReport #May2026 #April2026Data #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MacroData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026

    Why the Yield Curve Is Steepening Again in 2026
    2026/06/06
    Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's shape means for growth expectations and Federal Reserve policy. A specific, data-driven look at one of the most watched fixed-income signals. #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #CPI #JobsReport #JOLTS #LongTermRates #SteepeningCurve #BusinessCycle #EconomicsExplained #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #Investing #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal

    Why Business Inventories Are a Leading Recession Signal
    2026/06/06
    Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview and the jump in jobless claims to 225,000. A specific, data-driven look at a macro indicator that doesn't make headlines but leads the cycle. #BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #RecessionSignal #LeadingIndicators #MacroData #SupplyChain #GDP #JoblessClaims #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #LucasAndLuna #InventoryToSalesRatio #MayJobsReport #USEconomy #DataDriven Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means

    Long-Term Unemployment Is Spiking What It Means
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilization stuck below 77% and the fading GDP momentum, asking whether the labor market is sending a signal the macro data hasn't caught yet. #LongTermUnemployment #JoblessClaims #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #GDP #CapacityUtilization #Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #May2026 #UnemploymentRate #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #StructuralUnemployment #MacroData #HiddenCosts Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent

    Why Capacity Utilisation Is Stuck Below 77 Percent
    2026/06/05
    In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the history back to the 2015 oil bust and the 2020 pandemic, showing how structural shifts in energy, semiconductors, and reshoring have reset the 'normal' zone. The hosts also unpack what the flat capacity utilisation trend means for the Fed's inflation fight — and for your portfolio. #CapacityUtilisation #IndustrialProduction #GDP #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicIndicators #Economy #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #Reshoring #Semiconductors #Energy #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #Economics #BusinessPodcast #InvestmentStrategy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Industrial Production Is Beating GDP This Cycle

    Why Industrial Production Is Beating GDP This Cycle
    2026/06/04
    GDP is growing at just 1.6 percent annualized, but industrial production has jumped 0.7 percent in a single month. Lucas and Luna unpack why factories, refineries, and utilities are outperforming the broader economy — and what that means for the Fed, inflation, and your portfolio. They look at capacity utilization hitting 76.1 percent, the inventory rebuild that's driving output, and why this divergence might not last. A sharp, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the real economy in June 2026. #IndustrialProduction #GDP #CapacityUtilization #FederalReserve #Inflation #InventoryCycle #EconomicIndicators #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #BusinessInventories #RealGDP #NominalGDP #ProducerPrices #CoreCPI #LucasAndLuna #FexingoEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the GDP Deflator Reveals Hidden Inflation Pressures

    How the GDP Deflator Reveals Hidden Inflation Pressures
    2026/06/04
    In episode 30 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the GDP deflator—a measure of economy-wide inflation that often gets overshadowed by CPI and PCE. They explain why the deflator can signal broadening price pressures before they show up in consumer surveys, and how the current gap between real and nominal GDP growth hints at underlying inflation that Fed policy alone may struggle to tame. Using fresh data from the first quarter of 2026—when real GDP grew at just 1.6% annualized while nominal GDP topped $31.8 trillion—they break down what the deflator is telling us about the Iran war's impact on energy costs, wage stickiness in services, and why investors should watch this metric for early signs of regime change in monetary policy. #GDPDeflator #Inflation #RealGDP #NominalGDP #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #IranWar #EnergyPrices #CoreCPI #ProducerPrices #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #Inflation2026 #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Investing Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分