EPISODE 78: THE PLANNING FALLACY
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EPISODE 78: THE PLANNING FALLACY
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概要
You will underestimate how long things take. This isn't pessimism—it's one of the most robust findings in cognitive psychology. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky identified the planning fallacy decades ago, and nothing has changed. We are systematically, predictably overconfident about timelines.
This episode examines why the Sydney Opera House took fourteen years instead of four, Kahneman's solution of "reference class forecasting," and why accurate planning is a form of self-respect.
Key Topics: Planning fallacy, Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Hofstadter's Law, reference class forecasting, timelines, project management, Seneca, under-promise over-deliver
Today's Practice: Think of your next significant project or deadline. What's your current timeline estimate? Now find the base rate—how long did similar projects actually take you or others? Adjust your estimate accordingly. Add a buffer. Accuracy builds trust.
Master the mind. Your life will follow.]]>