Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada

Southern Pine regional price spreads

What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory

Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does

Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules

Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?

Strap in.

Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins

02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect

04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments

10:00 – Southern Pine update

18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion

24:00 – Trading range debate

36:00 – Why mills keep running

42:00 – Tariff clarification

Guest:

Kip Foteringham

Independent Trader and Market Analyst

kipf@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com