This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.

• 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads
• 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing
• 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs
• 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze
• 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math
• 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines
• 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means
• 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability
• 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth
• 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook

Advertiser:

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Product

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Guest: Thomas Mende

Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com

https://www.binderholz.com/

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com