『E11: Stocks, Quantum Cognition, & the Great Crash of 1929』のカバーアート

E11: Stocks, Quantum Cognition, & the Great Crash of 1929

E11: Stocks, Quantum Cognition, & the Great Crash of 1929

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Picture this: the Dow has just fallen 49% in two weeks, three trading days now carry the name "Black" like scars, and a fortune built on borrowed money has evaporated overnight. By the summer of 1932, the Dow sat at 41 – 89% below its 1929 peak. Every dollar in a margin account isn't just gone; it's owed back, with interest. This is the story of how millions of ordinary investors, convinced the market would rise "permanently," built and then detonated the greatest wealth-destruction event in American history – and how the exact same psychological wiring is still firing every time you open a trading app today.Between 1921 and 1929, the Dow climbed an incredible 504%, fueled by unregulated margin trading that let everyday Americans buy stocks the way they'd put a house on a credit card. When the market turned in late October 1929, it didn't correct – it collapsed, wiping out nearly half its value in two weeks across what became known as Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday. Margin debtors who couldn't cover their loans cracked an already fragile banking system; panicked depositors then stormed their local banks in four separate waves through the early 1930s, closing 9,000 banks in the process. Two mass decisions – the crash itself and the runs that followed – helped bring the U.S. economy to its knees, and left a psychological blueprint that resurfaces in the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 crypto collapse, and the 2025 tariff sell-off.This episode runs the crash through Superposed's four-part lens of quantum cognition. The superposition is the deceptively simple menu every investor from 1929 to today actually faces: buy, hold, or sell. Interference comes from Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky's Prospect Theory – reference points, loss aversion, diminishing sensitivity, and probability weighting all distort that menu before logic ever gets a vote. Contextuality shows how news, earnings, and macro shocks – a tariff announcement, a pandemic, a bank failure – reframe the exact same asset from "buy" to "sell" almost overnight.=================================Links:📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/ 📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/ =================================What you'll take away:Why the "buy, hold, or sell" decision is never really about the stock – it's about which reference point your brain locked onto, and when.How loss aversion, the same force behind the 1929 margin wipeout, explains modern crashes in GameStop, bitcoin, and the 2025 tariff sell-off.A concrete way to notice when herd behavior, not information, is driving your next trade.=================================Information in this episode does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Aidan Lewis is not a financial professional. Investing and trading in the stock market carries inherent risk that needs to be understood by the investor. Invest at your own risk. =================================Primary SourcesKahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.219228Kumar, A. (2008). Who Gambles in the Stock Market? Journal of Finance. https://ssrn.com/abstract=686022Barberis, N., & Thaler, R. (2002). A Survey of Behavioral Finance. NBER Working Paper 9222. https://doi.org/10.3386/w9222Secondary SourcesFed history: 1929 crash essayFisher's "permanently high plateau" speechBritannica: causes of the Depression1920s margin buying, laissez-faire policyHerding behavior review, 1929 crashBritannica: banking panics 1930-33Bank failures, money supply contraction 1929-33Smoot-Hawley timeline, banking panics by year
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