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Howard Marks – navigating the crisis - creed, preparation and control

What kind of mindset and organisational culture does it take to survive and to thrive in market turmoil?

Let’s be frank, there are a vanishingly small number of people who have navigated multiples crises successfully and have something interesting and reflective to say it about it.

One person who does is Howard Marks. Founder and Co-Chairman of Oaktree he is, for our (and Warren Buffet’s) money, one of the most thoughtful and experienced investors in the market today.

In the latest episode of Decision Nerds, we got to speak to him in the middle of recent market craziness. We had a fascinating chat - not about tariffs, Trump or trade wars, but the inner game; what individuals and firms need to succeed in this environment.

Joe's writing on investment decision-making is here.

You can find Paul on LinkedIn here.

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The Disruptor in Chief’s blizzard of executive orders, tariffs and foreign policy positions and his propensity to change them is making life difficult for investors and clients.

Things look and feel uncertain, perhaps more so than in living memory.

In this bite size episode, we discuss the science and practicalities of dealing with uncertainty.



The Electric shock study refernced in the discussion.

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As the wordly philosophers of Coldplay suggest, getting what you want, but not what you need, might leave you in need of fixing.

Leaps in investment platform technology give investors more information, more choice and the ability to act more quickly and easily. We want that, but is it what we need? As Joe points out, many of the positive developments in tech are double-edge swords. He thinks from a behavioural perspective, now is one of the worst times ever to be an investor.

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:

#𝟭 𝗟𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 – it takes me less than 10 seconds from launching my platform app on my phone to being able to deal. Is that a good thing? In one dimension yes, but the overarching story of behavioural finance is people doing irrational things that create bad outcomes. Slick and seamless tech combined with noise, FOMO and a constant barrage of stimulus has the potential to exacerbate these problems.

#𝟮 𝗔 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗽 – tech providers exist in a highly competitive environment and 'faster, easier, more' are key facets of the battleground. No one wants to lead a pitch with, ‘and….this is how we reduce information available to clients and make it harder for them to trade’.

#𝟯 𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 – whilst it might be possible to get providers around a table to agree a common approach that helps investors manage their worst impulses, a market-based solution is likely more workable. This needs those who advise on these platforms to be changing the conversation and including behavioural design as part of any selection process. Imagine a world where providers compete on how they help clients beat their biases as much as how slick the tech itself is.

𝗣𝗵𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆? 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

“Intelligent friction,” is a concept from the payments industry which focuses on interventions based the risk level of a transaction. It aims to balance a good user experience with effective security. Buy a coffee in a new country when you land there fine, buy a laptop, expect an intervention. There are some obvious investment analogies here. And of course this is only one tool in the arsenal, getting better at education and helping clients help themselves is also pivotal.

We don’t want to lose all the good things that tech brings, but to mangle Coldplay, we should perhaps be trying to help people want what they need.