『CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 49』のカバーアート

CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 49

CropGPT - Sunflower - Week 49

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This week's episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global sunflower market.

  • In Russia, sunflower oil exports have sharply declined due to oversupply and falling international demand. Export volumes dropped by 29% year-over-year between January and October 2025, totaling 3.45 million tons. Russia’s fluctuating export duty system, tied to prior pricing spikes, has also constrained supply. Domestically, a stronger ruble and rising raw material costs have reduced foreign supply, benefiting local producers who are increasingly targeting the internal market. Harvest outcomes varied across regions: the Altai territory performed well, while the Southern Federal District faced drought-related setbacks likely to push prices higher in early 2026.
  • Argentina saw a strong season, with sunflower production hitting 5 million tons following a 57% expansion in cultivation over five years. Favorable tax conditions, particularly a 4% export tax for sunflower oil versus 24.5% for soybean oil, have encouraged a shift from soybean to sunflower cultivation. Export activity surged by 76%, despite only a modest domestic consumption increase of 10.37% over five years.
  • Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region reported a standout performance with 537,000 tons of sunflower oilseeds, supported by growing local processing infrastructure. Exports to China and Lithuania exceeded 1,000 tons, highlighting strong international interest.
  • Ukraine remains the world’s leading sunflower oil exporter, contributing 46% to global exports, despite ongoing conflict impacting quality and logistics. Domestic challenges include high retail prices and constrained seed supply, pressuring processors to explore alternative oilseeds.
  • In the European Union, sunflower processing reached a nine-year low, dropping 2% from July to September due to stock shortages and a delayed harvest. Sunflower oil production fell to 1.74 million tons, while soybean processing increased by 7%, indicating a broader shift in EU oilseed dynamics.
  • India’s import profile shifted toward palm oil, driven by price advantages. Sunflower and rapeseed oil imports declined, while palm oil imports rose 4.6% in November. This contributed to a broader reduction in India’s total edible oil imports, which reached a seven-month low, reflecting global trends in oilseed markets and pricing.
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